Ji'nan will have more than 100 thousand babies in the next 6 years, and 2016 will be the peak year.
Qilu Evening Newspaper
last June, Shandong canceled two births interval. Recently, Shandong Province opened two children alone, these reproductive policies The adjustment of policy will inevitably lead to the accumulation of fertility and the birth peak. Ji'nan city population and Family Planning Commission Development Planning Office Exhibition Yongsheng.
it is understood that in recent years, the total population of Ji'nan is in a state of decelerating growth. In 2010, the resident population of Ji'nan increased by 15.07% than in 2000, but the average annual growth rate decreased by 9% from 1991 to 2000. Although the total population of the city is still growing, the growth rate has slowed obviously. Since the beginning of 90, Ji'nan has entered a low fertility level since the beginning of the last century. The average annual fertility rate of 2010 to 2012 is 1.37, far below the level of 2.1 replacement, and lower than the national level of 1.6.
there are more boys than girls in our neighborhood. Children feel more than boys. The feeling of Ms. Shaw is also reflected in the data. It is understood that the sex ratio of birth in Ji'nan is higher than those of these years. From 1992 to 2012, the average annual sex ratio of the city of Ji'nan was 109.7, beyond 103.amp; the normal range of mdash107 was lower than the level of 117 in the country. At the same time, Ji'nan's age structure is accelerating. In 2010, the proportion of population aged 65 or above in Ji'nan was 9.2%, which exceeded 7% of the elderly population standard, and showed an accelerated aging trend.
in June last year, Shandong province canceled two births interval. Recently, Shandong Province opened two children alone. The adjustment of these policies will inevitably cause birth and accumulation and form the peak of birth. Ji'nan city population and Family Planning Commission Development Planning Office Exhibition Yongsheng.
the Ji'nan population planning committee announced the data of the population development trend prediction analysis in Ji'nan after the birth policy adjustment, and said that these data were integrated with the data of the family planning department of Ji'nan, the data of the Bureau of statistics, the census register data of the Public Security Bureau and the fifth census data, and also referred to the fertility of the residents. Wish, the level of family planning work and other factors, the zodiac is also considered as an element to decide the new year of childbirth.
according to the predicted data, the peak year of birth in Ji'nan is in 2016, with 80 thousand and 600 people born in the year, 27 thousand and 500 more than the normal year. In 2015 and 2017, the number of births increased by the birth policy will also reach 23 thousand and 21 thousand and 400. In the situation of the relatively stable supply of social public resources, a sudden increase in the birth population of a certain year will make the population of this age group meet the shortage of resources at various stages, such as admission, admission, employment and pension.
although the population has increased by one hundred thousand people in recent years, the adjustment of fertility policy can not change the general trend of population development in Ji'nan. According to the forecast, in the case of the non adjustment of the fertility policy, the natural growth of the population in Ji'nan declined year by year. The growth of the population was zero before and after 2018, and then it entered the period of accelerated negative growth. Zhang Yongsheng said that after the release of the two child policy, Ji'nan was born in 100 thousand people from 2014 to 2020, postponing the decline rate of natural population growth and pushed the zero growth time for 2 to 3 years, but it will not fundamentally change the trend of population development.