overseas network March, twenty-first Century economic reports, on the topic of pension, the first start to appear pension empty account Law, and then put up the argument for postponing retirement, and now has launched the "housing endowment" conjecture. All of these points to a disturbing conclusion: the pension crisis.
this paper deduces the crisis of future pension from the perspective of population. In this crisis, the whole group after 80 will experience unbearable pain.
on the topic of old-age pension, it was the first to start the statement of annuities empty accounts, and then put out the argument of postponing retirement. All of these points to a disturbing conclusion: the pension crisis.
here we deduce the crisis of future pension from the perspective of population. In this crisis, the whole group after 80 will experience unbearable pain.
the so-called fertility rate refers to the average number of children born per woman in their lifetime, also known as the birth rate. According to the data in Figure 1, it can be roughly divided into three stages:
(1) 1950-1970 fertility average in 6;
(2) 1970-1980 fertility rate from 6 to 2;
(3) decline from 2, stable in 1.8.
, according to the latest data, Chinese women The fertility rate has dropped to 1.35 (remember this data, it is important).
why the media is always saying: China has entered a fast aging society; if the fertility rate is not raised, China will enter a deep aging society in the middle of this century. And so on, and so on.
(Figure 1: the fertility rate of Chinese women since the founding of the people's Republic of China) came from the "silver - hair China".
the importance of Figure 1, can be said, how to emphasize not too much, because China's future pension problems are reflected in it (through figure 1, even can predict the future trend of China's house prices, this will be discussed later).
we carefully analyze the information expressed in figure 1.
the longitudinal axis is the population number, the horizontal axis is the age section, the 5 year old is one file, from 0-4 years old to 80-84 years old, and the number of age group is too little compared with the total population, and the average life span of the Chinese is 73 years old, so it is omitted.
there are two age peaks: 20-24 and 40-44 years old, each taking the middle value as the representative, 22 and 42 years old, the two peak age difference is 20 years, almost equal to a population generation time, the Post 80 group is at 20-24 and 25-29 years old two. Overall, the Post 80 age is one year old and the corresponding number is more. Point.
according to the fertility rate in Figure 1, in 1950 -1970, the value was up to 6, which means that the twenty year was the peak of the birth of the population, also known as the first wave of the baby; then the time moved to 2010, the person born at the age of 40 years old, so in Figure 2, it could be seen from the age of 60. Pushed back to the age of 40, the population increased steeply.
1970 -1980, the previous figure in the fertility rate from 6 to 2, reflected in second Zhang Tuzhong, from 40 to 30 years of age, the number of steep decline.
some people may ask, since 1980, the fertility rate has been maintained at around 2. How is the number of people under 30 years old rising? This is because a large number of people born around 1960 were born to the birth age, so the second wave of baby boomers, the baby born in the baby wave, is now the post - 80.
because the fertility rate is 2 or even lower, the total number of baby boomers in each period can not exceed the total number of parents. The reason is that the ratio of male to female is about 1:1, while that of a child is 2, so that two adults can only have two children.
because of the steep decline in the number of people aged between 40 and 30, the number of minors after their 18 years of age decreased to 5-9 years of age after the birth of the group, and the number of births began to rise, and the number of births began to rise, and the third wave of baby tides was due to the number of people under 30 years of age. More and more, and to the childbearing period.
summed up, you can sum up: in a certain age, the number of people from age to age is increasing, then the number of babies born in this age group is increasing, and vice versa; if the fertility rate is below 2, then the baby is born. The total number must be lower than the total number of parents in the corresponding age group.