for a non immigrant country like China, the only way to solve this problem is to encourage more children. And that's easy. Once people are used to having fewer children, it is difficult to turn into many children. Coupled with their own cost of living and child maintenance costs, even if they want to be more productive, their economic capacity is insufficient. Do not know everyone's attention, from the whole social population of the median of income, the last generation after 80 can do one person to work three families; back to a generation, you can see, one person work to feed five families; and now after 80, two small couples work to have a child, the days are too tight. . Therefore, even if the country fully liberties the second child, fewer families will have two or more births.
(Figure 4: the elderly support ratio in the past and the future, the trend map of the ratio of labor and old age) from the "silver China".
Figure 4 shows that the red column represents the ratio between the working population of China in the past and in the future (15-59 years old) and the elderly (60 years old or older).
the number of elderly people entering the retirement age is not less than 17 million each year since 2013, while the number of new workers is not more than 13 million. The demographic dividend is first transformed into population debt for the first time, and this trend will last for at least 25 years, and the speed of aging is increasing. In
2025, the ratio between the number of working population and the number of elderly people is 3, which is now at 5.5, that is, it will drop by nearly half in the next ten years. What does that mean? Under the current pension system, the proportion of pensions paid by individuals will rise from 8% to 16%, and the proportion of pensions paid by enterprises will increase from 20% to 40%. No business can afford such a high cost. Therefore, in the next ten years, the social security system will undergo an essential change, which is the redistribution of stock wealth.
as you can see in Figure 4, by 2040, this value is 2, that is, 2 working people feed 1 old people (and need to raise children). What is the concept? At present, in the case of 5.5, the pension account has been running in the empty account, so in the case of 2, the working population will pay nearly three times the proportion of the present pensions each month. What about the daily living expenses and how to raise the children? Unimaginable! Can
do the finance go? What I want to ask is where the money comes from, in the final analysis, or by the working population, but in the future, the absolute number and relative number of the working population are falling, so the premise that the finance is going to go is not.
it is worth noting that, in 2040, it is the age of the post - 80s collective retirement and the two column data on the right side of the fourth picture. It is not difficult to see that other countries will face the tragic ending of the aged, that is to say, the future pension crisis will be a global participation.
figures after 2005 are calculated by the United Nations based on the hypothesis of China's constant fertility rate of 1.8 (that is, each woman has 1.8 children in a lifetime), the actual data is lower, that is, in 2010, it has dropped to 1.35. In other words, the ratio of the working population to the elderly will be even more striking. The speed is down. The post - 1980s will come into the age of the old-age tragedy.
more tragically, before the post-1980s retirement, in the environment of high cost of living, the family structure of the housing slaves, car slaves and nu Nu will also face the 4-2-1 family structure, that is, the one to 80 married couples should support 4 elderly and 1 children at the same time; an old man in bed after 20 or 30 after the last century, and a few children after 50 after taking turns They all seem to be incompetent. Do not say that after 2, they will take care of 4 old people. The first generation of the 80s will begin at the age of 40 (when the last generation is basically 70 years old, and a variety of diseases are emerging), they will enter a busy, hard and unrewarding life.