do you really want to postpone retirement? At present, the maintenance ratio is as high as 5.5, and it has already been delayed to 65 years old. So when the support ratio is 2, how old will it be to retire?
housing for the aged? After the 1980s, in the young and young years, the housing mortgage loan was repaid in 30 years. Finally, there was a house with complete self property right. After the old age, the mortgage was also remortgaged to the bank to obtain the anti mortgage loan. If the housing bubble burst and the age of housing has been close to the asset life of eligible collateral for 35 years, what does the bank not approve of? According to the foregoing, the demand for the house is only getting lower and lower because of the less and less young people. With the death of the former generation of old people, the housing will become more and more empty, a large number of vacant houses are released, the house will become far greater than the demand, the housing bubble burst can be said to be a nail on the board.
(the distribution of the age structure of China's population in figure 2:2010) comes from "silver hair China".
it can be seen from second pictures that in 2010, the age of 20-24 was the peak of the population, and the younger age of the population fell rapidly; the age of 20-24 years old was set at the age of 30, so it was easy to deduce that the demand for the house would peak in 2016-2020 years, then, with the green. With the decline in population and the death of the elderly, the supply and demand of the house has been greatly reversed. Therefore, the 2016-2020 year is the real high risk period of house prices, and the collapse of house prices may come early.
at this point, it is summed up that the post - 80s experienced high cost of living and the most burdensome maintenance task before retirement, but there was no support for retirement.
from the content of Figure 4, the situation of retirement pension after 70 and 90 is not optimistic.
but, after 70, life before retirement is better than after 80, since after all, after all, it is not a single child, after all, an old man in the family can take turns taking care of a number of children, and 70 (especially in 75 years ago) do not need to pay for high house prices, among them part of the crowd even enjoy welfare points. The policy of the house is qualitatively different from the post - 80s group.
90 after 90, but there is too much the same as the post-80s: the only child, both face high house prices, are in the high price inflation age, all have the 4-2-1 family structure, after retirement, the overall support ratio is very low 2. It can be said that the post-90s simply copied everything after 80.
I am not sure whether the fourth wave baby boomer begins to turn around, and does not know whether alimony will have an inflection point after 2050, and it is sure that after the 1980s and the post-90s will pay a huge price for the transition of the future China's population and economy.
(Figure 3: the age structure of China's population in the future, the vertical axis of the population) is derived from the "silver China".
to talk about the third wave baby tide.
the third wave baby boom is the children born after 80, born in 10s around twenty-first Century, and they are called the 10.
because of the high living cost in the Post 80's environment, plus the identity of the housing slaves, the car slaves and the Nu Nu, even if they can have a second child, the vast majority of the post - 80 couples still choose to have only one child and even choose "DINK", which will lead to a sharp decline in fertility and a rapid decline in the total population.
when they grow up after 10, they will find that they are only children, and their parents are only children after 80, and they will still face the 4-2-1 family structure. Even some families have to support their grandparents. At that time, however, they were at least not a housing slave, because as the previous generation passed away, a large number of vacant houses were released, house prices fell and the cost of living fell. Not the 10 of the housing slaves, perhaps ("maybe"), will take this opportunity as an opportunity to put time and energy into the wave of technological change and institutional innovation, and the economy has developed a new growth point and buries the possible fourth wave baby boomers.
is it true? As 80, we will wait and see, though we are already 70 years old.