Ji'nan property market: "excessive fire" still has no room for reduction.
in December, the sales of Ji'nan property market continued to rise in November. It seems that there is a new performance of "rising fire" again. In retrospect, the "patient" was in the face of the policy regulation and the contention of the open sawing business in the whole year of 2010. It is hard to heal, and it has the symptoms of hard to say.
a little bit of fever, and a little fever, what's wrong with the Ji'nan property market in the end?
patients:
disease history: VS fever
9 months before 2010, the data line of the Ji'nan property market is "ten new countries" "The implementation of regulatory policies as a turning point, once gradually from the peak to the trough. Since the end of 2008, the high fever in the property market, known as "the most regulatory policy in history", was ended in the end of 2008; the "watch and see tide" reproduced the house market; the sale plan was delayed in advance; rigid demand has become the leading force to support the transaction data.
however, after a brief fever, Ji'nan and the property market in October and November were suddenly low. According to the data of Ji'nan urban and rural construction commission transparent housing network, Ji'nan new commercial housing sold 1843 sets in November, the second single month trading volume since this year, second only to October, not only in April since the property market regulation and control since the second single month trading volume, but also since December last year, the second single month turnover, the continuation of the property market A trend of gradual warming.
visit: industry personage
(University of Jinan economics Dean)
in 2010, the general trend of house price and state property in Ji'nan is consistent, and the house price is stable at the same time. In the city of rising housing prices, Ji'nan's housing price increase is one of the larger cities. Many people say that Ji'nan's housing price belongs to "false fire". People who really need housing can not afford to buy a house.
first,
the market price of the real estate market in Ji'nan is basically a steady rising trend. From the data point of view, the current market supply is very clear, basically every month. The supply of the house is quite different from the sales volume. The main reason for the sensitivity of the house price is that it is closely related to the life of the common people, but it can not get rid of the essence of the commodity. The fluctuation of commodity price is changed with the fluctuation of its value and the fluctuation of supply, so the price rise and downregulation is ultimately controlled by the market itself, this is why The policy of the state can only cure the symptoms and not cure the root cause.
again policy, this year the January 10th "country eleven", April 17th "state ten", September 29th "five countries", this is this year's three continuous real estate regulation policy. No matter how to explain the policy and how to carry out the policy, the first thing to do for the consumer is to know what the policy is to do, that is to say, what is the purpose of the country's policy making, that is to say it is "regulation", and its final purpose can be summed up as the following main sides: first, to strike the investment, to the two suite, Three mortgage loans have limited policies; two, curb the excessive rise of housing prices in some cities. Therefore, from a policy point of view, it is not mandatory to suppress the meaning of housing prices, to maintain the stability of the real estate market is the purpose of the state's policy.
Zhao Luliang
near the end of the year, many people are very concerned about the price trend of Ji'nan. In 2010, the Ji'nan property market experienced a lot of twists and turns, but the market in Ji'nan was generally more CIS, and the majority of the enterprises passed smoothly, too. There are substantial concessions, and the people have also made some gains.
in view of the "Crazy" property market, the state ministries and commissions issued new policies in September and November respectively to limit the number of housing purchase and prohibit the speculative purchase of provident fund loans in order to control the soaring housing prices. Regulation is a good thing. Generally speaking, it will help the healthy development of the Ji'nan market, otherwise the housing prices in Ji'nan will probably rise more.
house prices are more than the ability to buy a house, that is, the "bubble" people usually say, but this is a common problem in the country. To solve this problem, time is the best way, the government to strengthen the adjustment of housing structure is also a good way. As an emerging economy, the economy is developing at a high speed and its wealth is increasing rapidly. "Bubble" is a specific phenomenon.
will be over in 2010, the house prices have no fast track of high song, but left too many policy nodes, stumbled across the November, in the control of the background has received unexpected effects. At the end of the year, the activities of developers were still lively, and the opening and closing of the activities continued to increase. In 2010, the selling market and the house market had a strange performance in the balance. The developers were worried about changing the marketing strategy actively in the various policies that were introduced in succession. Bewilderment. To this end, Soufangwang launched the survey of Ji'nan buyers' mentality at the end of 2010, hoping to start with the real idea of the buyers and reveal the truth of the Ji'nan property market.
up to now, a total of 65.3% of the netizens said that house prices in Ji'nan are still too high, and 33% of them have chosen the price trend of Ji'nan to rise by 10% at the end of the year. More than half of people still say that the most concerned factor in buying a house is the price. Nearly 40% of the respondents have chosen to wait and see the market before next year, 1-2 months later.
conclusion: excessive fire and
Professor Ge said that the so-called "false fire" refers to the appreciation of the RMB and the decline of the stock market resulting in the relatively few channels and forms that consumers can invest in, and many developers and consumers have higher expectations of the real estate market, and that the value and value space of the property is still very large. This has led to the fact that the country's regulatory policies have little impact on Ji'nan's property market, and housing prices are still rising slightly. Some low-income working-class people still can't afford to buy housing.
doctor's order: to float
1. in future Ji'nan house prices do not have a decline in
professor Ge Jintian said a month ago, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that house prices in the first tier cities would fall by 20%, while the latest research report issued by the Renmin University of China said the national floor price It's going to fall 20%.
professor Ge Jintian disagrees, he believes, "Ji'nan's current housing prices in the national capital cities account for the middle level, there is still room for further rise. In the future, housing prices in Ji'nan will still increase slightly, and there is no room for reduction. It would be nice if we could maintain the status quo or drop slightly. "
Wu Shuang also said that the future of Ji'nan house prices, as people in the real estate industry, to consumers a more clear answer is that house prices will rise, at least from all aspects of analysis, house prices basically have no downward trend.
2. to buy a house to cope with a certain hidden danger of inflation
although the room for the appreciation of the property is relatively large, but investors to buy a house to cope with inflation is still a certain hidden danger. Prof Ge Jintian said: first of all, investing in housing will lead to the lack of housing in the absence of housing. Secondly, investment in real estate will lead to distortion of the real estate price signal, "what is for housing and what is for investment, not very obvious." Once the real estate bubble is disillusioned, not only does it affect the wealth of investors and developers, but also for the banks, there are some losses, the loans are not up, and the social instability will increase. "
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famous mouth to buy no house
CCTV financial channel "rival" program, real estate developers, financial commentators, experts and scholars fierce confrontation, "we should not buy a house now?" debate.
the first round of the argument is: will house prices fall in the near future? Yuan Yue, chairman of the zero point research consultancy group, is the red side camp, he thinks that the house price will not fall, and one control is flat, one is rising, and the chairman of the SOHO China Limited company, Pan Shiyi, is the blue Fang camp, he thinks that if the land supply is less, the money in the market is too much, The price of house prices will rise.
second rounds of argument: can real estate tax restrain the rise of house prices? Dramatic changes have occurred in this round. The original red party guest Yuan Yue changed his position to the blue Fang camp, thus becoming the president Ren Zhiqiang of Huayuan Real Estate Limited by Share Ltd in the red Fang camp, and the array of Pan Shiyi, Yuan Yue and financial commentator. Ye Fang's three party blue faction camp, Ren Zhiqiang firmly believes that property tax will not affect housing prices, while the blue side believes that the introduction of property tax will lead to a fall in house prices.
the third round of the argument is: at present, should we buy a house? In this debate, Yuan Yue returned to the Red Square camp again, Pan Shiyi also changed from blue to red square, plus 4 people, Kim and rock, chief economist of Ren Chi Qiang and the chief economist of National Gold securities. The blue side camp, composed of vice president Gu Yunchang and ye Tan, said that investment should be prudent whether it is investment or housing improvement.
guest wonderful speech:
Yuan Yue: in fact, it's the problem that you don't need to cut prices today. I don't think you need to cut prices, but at this stage, we need to work together to make one do not get everyone to follow up, buy a lot of sets, many sets, make this market political The government has no time to implement structural optimization, you are making so much money, even a transition period of cooperation is not willing to do, I think the government should not only take the hard work, but also the image of the developers to become the people's public enemy will be further strengthened.
Pan Shiyi: Pan Shiyi: This is related to Yuan Yue's career, because he is a media person, do not look at the market fundamentals, do not look at the supply, demand, say the market atmosphere is what, can not look at the phenomenon of inflation, the chase is temporary, if the market is really large, the price will come, but today I followed you as an opponent I lost my way. You eat by talking. I eat by building a house. I must lose to you.
Ye Tan: the problem of negative population growth in Germany, I would like to remind you that according to your data, China's housing ownership rate is very high. If it is a rigid demand, it must be linked to the price ratio of house prices, should not support the present house price, right? Calculate now the average wages in Beijing, the average wages of Shanghai company? Take Hainan as an example, each month has risen a lot, two thousand yuan less than the distribution of income, it is very low. But this money, now the price of Hainan is to what extent, so it is completely not the result of urbanization, it is completely a speculative speculation in a currency.
Ren Zhiqiang: first, we should reduce the design of the front and lower the threshold. If we do not lower the threshold of the front, we should not accept it later. Because we have in advance, and international integration, other people hold taxes, others do not have the premise to enter the threshold so many taxes, and other people to buy personal income tax, we have not reduced, we have a variety of tax superposition, many times more than others, also tax, not plundered? The government robbed the money in the wallet of the people in the wallet, this is very very It is bad銆� I still disagree with Yuan Yue that if we reduce housing prices, temporary measures will be the simplest and no need to reduce burdens. Do not think that by one time payment, more people can afford to buy, completely can not use tax methods, can solve the temporary measures and house prices rise, so many good ways, why do you use the worst way to let all people worry, many poor people buy a house to pay taxes?
gold and rock: whether the government, developers, Or every family, every individual, always remember to follow the trend, tide and tide, and human effort is nothing but a spray.
Gu Yunchang: the demand for home ownership should be bought either for the first time or for the two time. Why? Because the first time home ownership may be the mother-in-law is behind, not buying a house can not marry. Why should the investment demand be prudent. The government said that we must control speculative demand. The property tax and property tax discussed just now play a role in you. In addition, the government I see, house price instability it does not stop, if it is unstable, it will come out, especially in some hot cities, house prices have gone up very quickly, this situation is likely to have market fluctuations, bubbles, the market will fluctuate, so as investors if there are other investment channels can be compared, In the end, we need to make a comparison between whether we should make quick investments in housing or other fast earning. In particular, it is very difficult not to borrow money from banks to invest.