Re: increased the number of two children in the first half of the year, an obvious expert: implementing the encouragement policy
Wang Jinying, executive director of the China population society agrees.
Wang Jinying believes that after the implementation of the overall two child policy, the total fertility population will increase, but there will be no greater growth. The current childbearing and childbirth situation shows that the actual fertility rate is in a reasonable range. "Even if the fertility is fully liberalized, the total population will not grow rapidly. Because of the long-term trend, the reduction of birth population is still a major trend. He said.
experts suggest that the policy should be encouraged to implement
Wang Jinying believes that a friendly society of childbearing should be established, such as the pressure of raising children, and the state's policy of collecting individual taxes according to the family needs to be introduced as soon as possible. In addition, policies such as extension of maternity leave can be accelerated. For enterprises, it is necessary to help solve the problem of rising labor costs arising from maternity leave for female workers.
21 century economic reporter learned that maternity leave has been extended in many places, such as the extension of women's maternity leave from 128 days to 178 days in Guangdong, and from 158 days to 1 years in Tibet.
current regional differences in fertility are also evident. Jiangxi's data show that from 2017 to June, the delivery volume of the Provincial Maternal and child health care hospital was 11026, an increase of 11.42% over the same period last year. The provincial level three first-class obstetric hospital, the total amount of maternal production than the implementation of two children before the increase of more than 25%.
but the fertility rate in Shanghai has declined. Wan Xiaoping, President of the Department of gynaecology and obstetricians of the Shanghai Medical Association, pointed out that the latest monitoring data in Shanghai showed that the number of births has been slowing down this year, and it is expected that the number of births in 2017 of the year is about 30000 times, down by about 10% in 2016.
why the number of childbearing in Shanghai declined, more than two child women told reporters that the cost of raising children is high, the need to buy large houses, and who to take children is also a reason for many families hesitated.
the original new view that the core is to help the two child birth measures, in addition to the extension of maternity leave, all over the country is also in succession in the introduction of child care policy, which is beneficial to encourage two child birth.
"the next step is to continue to look at the implementation of the two child policy in a few years, because after all, the cycle of pregnancy is 1 and a half years." The original new statement.
up to now, there are 90 million couples who meet the two child conditions in the country, but why are two children and more than 10% per year? The survey by the Department of health planning has found that more than 60% of the people who do not want to have two children are because of the heavy financial burden or lack of energy to take care of the children. For example, 4% of the family let the children into the nursery, 80% by their own older generation to bring children or to take the baby, and the cost of education, medical costs are relatively high, female employment also involves the problem of career development.
Wang Guangzhou believes that there is a controversy about the time when the academic age is the peak of fertility. We expect that the rapid increase in fertility of the two children this year is the result of past historical accumulation, that is, many women want to live but have no policy, and now have a policy, so two children have been born soon. There is a prediction in
that the peak of fertility in two children and all the population is in 2018. If this is the case, then look back on the data for several years and consider whether the policy is adjusted.
king Guangzhou did not agree with the above forecast. He believes that, as a child has continued to decline and two children have increased fertility, the number of births in the country may reach a historical peak of about about 19000000 after the adjustment of the overall two child birth policy in 2017. By 2018, it may be stable or slightly down, and then will soon decline after some time. If so, the fertility policy needs to be readjust.
"now the number of two child births in Shanghai has decreased, which is in line with expectations. Therefore, after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the two child will soon reach the peak of fertility, and then the possibility of falling into the market will be relatively large. He said.