Pork supply exceeds demand in the short term, but pork prices still drop slightly in the short term.
source: China Economic Network - Economic Daily reporter Huang Junyi
March, the whole country rose 0.9%, pork price Year-on-year decline of 3.2%, pull CPI down about 0.09 percentage points over the same period
pork high import volume and pork consumption seasonal decline will continue for a period of time, it is expected that in the short term, the pig price is still a small decline in
the National Statistics Bureau recently issued a data show, the first quarter of the consumer price of our country The grid index (CPI) rose by 0.7 percentage points over the same period last year. Experts said that pork prices rose by 23.3 percentage points over the same period last year, and the impact of CPI growth dropped significantly.
pork price has always been closely related to CPI. For example, in July 2015, although the prices of industrial producers and industrial producers' purchase prices fell 5.4%, 6.1%, respectively, the price of pork rose by 16.7% in the year on year, so that CPI still rose by 1.6% over the same period.
"in March, the national CPI increased by 0.9% compared with the same period last year, and pork prices fell by 3.2% compared with the same period last year, pushing CPI down by 0.09 percentage points over the same period." Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Institute of agricultural information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said. According to the Ministry of agriculture, pork prices and live pig prices have dropped for 15 weeks in a row. Among them, the price of pork fell from fourth yuan per kilogram in January to 29.35 yuan in the second week of May, down 1.5%, down 17.2% from the same period last year.
lower prices for pigs, Zhu Zengyong said, the reason for the recovery of pig supply, pork consumption into the off-season, raising efficiency, prices of raw materials, reducing the cost of breeding.
data from the Ministry of agriculture showed that over 17 million 191 thousand and 800 slaughtering slaughtering enterprises of the whole country were slaughtered in March, with an increase of 13.8%, and a 34.9% increase over the same period. In the first quarter of this year, the import of fresh frozen pork reached 346 thousand and 200 tons, up 21% from the same period last year. Domestic pig supply increased, pork imports increased significantly, resulting in the current pork supply exceeds demand. On the other hand, because of the continuous rise in the price of pigs in 2016, the breeding efficiency of the farmers is high, and more funds, energy and technology can be invested to improve the infrastructure and raise the culture technology. A good level of scale pig farmers can produce more than 20 effective piglets per head, which effectively reduces the cost. From January to April this year, the average price of corn fell by 9.4% compared with the same period last year, and the price of fattening pigs combined with feed prices fell by 0.4% over the same period last year. According to scale households and breeding enterprises, the cost of pig farming in the first quarter dropped from 14 yuan per kilogram to 12 yuan last year.
"large scale breeding enterprises, such as Mu yuan shares and" Da Bei Nong ", began to increase the number of sows and reserved sows in 2016. New hope and other feed enterprises have begun to distribute pig breeding in Northeast, Inner Mongolia and other main grain producing areas. The reduction of production capacity in the prohibited areas is expected to be compensated to a certain extent. Zhu Zengyong said. However, the price of pork in April and the US price difference between the EU and the United States were reduced to 8.70 yuan and 11.01 yuan by the resumption of price of pork in the EU and the United States and the effect of the euro on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In the later period, the import of pork is expected to decrease slightly.
last weekend, the wholesale market of Beijing new farm and sideline products wholesale market per kilogram of 17.06 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decline of 32.16%, the decline continues to enlarge. "The lowest price last week was the lowest price since the end of 2015 5. Looking back on the trend of meat price from May 2015 to the present, we can see that the price of pigs is in the stage of climbing from May 2015 to May. After 2016, the overall trend of the pig price is falling, now the enthusiasm for the expansion of the capacity of the pig is lowered, and the most direct way to reduce the temperature is to cool the price of the hairs, to the hair. The price of the pig is cooled. " Liu Tong, manager of Statistics Department of Beijing agricultural and sideline products wholesale market, said.
for the future, Zhu Zengyong believes that the high import of pork and the seasonal decline of pork consumption will continue for some time, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of pigs is still in a small decline. Due to the steady recovery of pig production capacity in the suitable area, the supply of pig will increase more moderate, and the price of pork will not continue to fall sharply, and it will probably stabilize at the end of May. Pork prices will rise steadily in the three quarter, but there will be no room for further increase. Pork prices will continue to be lower than the same period last year and continue to lower CPI.