Ji'nan rental market status quo survey of housing prices to predict housing prices will fall?
source: 2010-7-11 Qilu Evening News
property market has always been the focus of attention. After severe adjustment in the first half of the year, the property market has been entangled in the big price drop. But the property market is not a lack of news, the new deal under the regulation and control of Beijing and other new housing prices plunged, while the rental prices have risen sharply, according to the "seesaw" law, rent rises up, house prices should be callback.
by the end of June and early July, Ji'nan's second-hand housing rental market also showed signs of synchronous warming. Housing leasing has become the main business support of many intermediaries. What is the situation of the rental market in Ji'nan? Will it be a "seesaw" effect? A reporter has conducted a survey for the last week to try to restore the real status of the second-hand housing rental market in Ji'nan.
experts commentary on the "seesaw"
"China's urban land price status 2009" published by the Ministry of land in the end of March this year, the concept of "rent ratio" similar to "rent ratio" is first defined. The data obtained from the rental price of the house and the price of the house are considered to be a judgment. The basis of the health of the city's real estate market.
the land price determined by the Ministry of land and land is calculated as follows: the rental price of a flat is equal to the rental price (one year) / house price (excluding decoration and taxes). The Ministry of homeland believes that if the ratio is less than 4.5%, it shows that there is a bubble in housing prices in this area. If the ratio is above 5.5%, the housing will still have room for appreciation.
including Qingdao, the Ministry of land continued to follow the changes in the property rental ratio of the six major cities in China. The data show that the relative rent level of sales prices has risen too fast in the last five years. From 2005 to 2009, the rental price ratio of residential property in Beijing was 6.42%, 6.11%, 4.83%, 4.59% and 3.81% respectively, and the other 5 typical cities, including Qingdao, were roughly the same trend. This data also shows that from the rate of return on investment, the rate of housing rental rate in the 6 sample cities selected by the Ministry of land is lower than that of the individual housing loan rate more than 5 years, which indicates that the return on rents of long-term housing investors is significantly lower than the rate of return on the normal investment.
like Qingdao, the Ji'nan property market also has a rental ratio of less than 4.5%. At the end of 2009, a new residential area in the Ji'nan core area was taken as an example. At the end of 2009, the average sale price of the residential building has exceeded 9000 yuan per square meter, and the total price of a set of 90 square meters of housing in this district is around 810 thousand yuan. The rental price of 90 square meters housing in this district is about 2500 yuan per month. According to this data, the rent ratio of the residential quarter is only 3.7%. This ratio is not only far below the 5.94% housing loan interest rate over 5 years, but also is 0.17 percentage points lower than the rate of 3.87% of the provident fund over 5 years. Only by virtue of rental income can the housing cost take 27 years to recover the cost.
professor Li Tiegang, vice president of the economics school of Shandong University and the director of the real estate research center, said that the Shandong property market represented by Ji'nan and Qingdao has been lower than ever, and the rent price in Ji'nan has risen recently, although it can cause the change of the rent ratio, but the one or two small increase is not fundamental. Change the situation of low rent ratio. Professor Li Tiegang said that, in the short term, rent and house prices have a reverse movement, leasing and buying and selling have this interaction, "Ji'nan's current rent rise, can directly reflect a new house has been lack of continued rising power."
demand to buy to rent
a night of heavy rain, Ji'nan cool little, at 9 a.m., Lao Ge sat in the office, the remote command of a few friends, to help the six li mountain road father Yue mother's two air-conditioning moved to the house road new rental house, open windows open, wind blows into the Office Lao Ge was sweating a lot, and the phone in his hand kept beating and typing. "(moving) too many things." Old Ge apologized.
according to the general purchase investment, speculation, rigid demand division, the old Ge obviously belongs to the last category, nearly ten years of marriage, the child is 5 and a half years, a family of three still live in father-in-law's mother-in-law, "the elderly care for the children, indeed very provincial." Lao Ge said, "but the children are getting older and the elderly are getting older. It's very inconvenient to continue living together."
old GE's new rented house in kudu road is only more than 60 square, and the monthly rent is up to 1400 yuan, "two hundred or three hundred yuan more than the previous months." Lao Ge said, "rent the house is close to the unit, children will go to school in the second half of next year." One month's rent is half a month's salary. Lao Ge feels great pressure on the economy, but he has analyzed the pros and cons comprehensively.
20%
a huge contrast to the sluggish second-hand housing sale. In the recent period, the second-hand housing rental market in Ji'nan has been gradually active. The number of leasing transactions has not only increased considerably, but the rental price of housing has increased, and the leasing industry has become the owner of many second-hand housing intermediaries. A source of profit.
Qilu property market real property run Xin shop is located on the road of Keyuan, Xu Yiyong, the owner of the shop, said that the rental business of the house is the main business of his second-hand housing intermediary, and the trade intermediary service is back to the second. In June, his agency facilitated the 6 leasing business, and the sale and purchase business had no memory in that month.
"leasing is really more prosperous than buying and selling." Xu Yiyong concluded, "the fastest rental housing will be found in the store within two or three days." At the same time, Xu Yiyong also said that the rental price is also higher than in the past few months. "Some sixty or seventy square meters, two rooms of the house of science and technology in April and May can only rent one thousand yuan to one thousand yuan in the month, and now the price will go to one thousand three or four." Xu Yiyong said the rise was 10% to 20%.
Zhao Wei, regional director of Qilu real estate market in Ji'nan, said that many stores had similar feelings in the real estate franchise system of Qilu real estate market.
the same situation in Ji'nan's largest second-hand housing chain - twenty-first Century real estate franchisees are also reflected. In twenty-first Century, Wang Wei, the assistant manager of the FMOS franchisee, said that the lease could account for more than 70% of the total volume of the business, and the overall rate of rent rise was also between 10% and 20%.
Why are students pushing up rent
why the rental market is better than buying and selling? Who is the leasehold of these houses? "The main source is a number of secondary school graduates who have graduated from a new graduate or come to a financial internship." Zhao Weicheng, regional director of Qilu real estate market in Ji'nan, "these new demands can at least account for half of the rental market." Qilu real estate market is suitable for the 4 rental businesses in the end of June to three. In twenty-first Century, Wang Wei, the assistant manager of the FMOS franchise store, said July was the beginning. "The large batch of graduates became the main force of the rental market, and it would be more obvious at the end of August July."
in addition, Zhao Wei believes that "after the adjustment and control policy is implemented, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and many homebuyers give up the idea of buying houses and turn to renting houses". The old ge of the previous article is a typical example. "Renting is just excessive and will definitely buy it in the future." Lao Ge told reporters, "we need to observe the impact of policies on the market." However, the old Ge himself also believes that the impact of the policy on the Ji'nan market will not be too big, "Ji'nan house prices may fall, but falling to the average price of four thousand or five thousand yuan in 2007 is almost impossible." Lao GE has adjusted the target from a new house to a 60 square meter second-hand house.
old Ge said, compared with renting a house, buying a house obviously has to bear greater economic pressure, but buying a house is down to the truth, and renting often faces the uncertainty of "rent rise" and "the housing of the landlord". "The house under rent is likely to be demolished." And the landlord said when he signed the contract, "the rent rent of 1400 yuan is low, and the second contract year is likely to rise." Lao Ge also decided to rent time in his own plan for two years, "two years later to buy a house."
intermediary has no evil
twenty-first Century real estate FV shop assistant assistant shop assistant Wang Wei has been employed for four years, he said that the actual rent in Ji'nan is actually rising every year, especially after the Spring Festival and the two peak seasons in 7 and August, "average increase between 150 yuan to 200 yuan", a set of two rooms one set. The rental market price of the hall is about one thousand yuan, and three years ago, the house can only rent to seven hundred or eight hundred yuan. Wang Weicheng currently has a small increase in the price of the housing rental market in Ji'nan, but this growth is a normal natural growth. Beijing's rash rent does not exist in Ji'nan. Wang Wei believes that the reason why Beijing is able to rent the rent phenomenon is that many intermediaries can control the housing source, and in Ji'nan, the intermediary of the control of the housing source is obviously not enough, "even if it is a rental transaction associated with the intermediary, the renter and the landlord can meet."
Wang Wei believes that the rent of Ji'nan has been "rising naturally" year by year. The main driving force comes from the rapid rise in the price of new houses, "new houses are expensive, and the rent price is rising naturally."