Shandong alone two child policy landing Ji'nan prepares for the 2016 baby boom
May 30th, the "separate two child" policy formally landed in Shandong. According to the city's population estimation, after the implementation of the new deal, there will be more than 100 thousand people in Ji'nan from 2014 to 2020. It is expected that there will be a baby boom in 2016. How to get through this "special" stage smoothly is undoubtedly a test for the government departments. From the city's population planning committee, the reporter learned that the whole city's population system began to be "ready for war" at the beginning of this year.
from January to April the city's birth statistics
two children 5866 people increased 43%
20 thousand people higher than the same period of last year 13.5%
status: 1 to April this year, the total population of the city was 20 thousand, a 13.5% increase over the same period last year. The expectation of the adjustment of the policy.
from the second half of last year, the Municipal Population and family planning committee started a special investigation, and used the census, statistical yearbook, public security census register and the data of the work of family planning to predict the trend of population development after the adjustment of the fertility policy in our city. It is predicted that the number of births in 2014 will reach 67 thousand, an increase of 8 thousand and 100 before the adjustment of the fertility policy.
in the early 90s of last century, Ji'nan began to enter the low fertility level. The average annual total fertility rate from 2010 to 2012 was 1.37, which was lower than the national level of 1.6. This shows that although the total population of the city is still growing, the growth rate has slowed down significantly.
Sun Juntao, director of the Municipal Population Planning Committee, said that with the realization of the low fertility level in our city, the factors of "profit" are decreasing relatively, and the "disadvantages" of population aging, gender imbalance and unreasonable family structure have appeared. "The adjustment of fertility policy is bound to have a profound impact on the population development of our city." "Overall, the birth of the population has fluctuated this year, mainly influenced by the policy of opening the birth interval in the province last year, and the performance will be more obvious in the second half of the year." Sun Juntao said that the changes in these birth data accords with the expectation of policy adjustment and is reasonable and controllable.
forecast: 100 thousand people were born in our city from 2014 to 2020. The general trend of population development will not change, and 2016 will be the peak of pregnancy.
according to the prediction, after the opening of the "two child" policy, the general trend of population development in our city will not change.
taking 2013 as the starting point, considering the city's urban and rural structure, fertility will, death level, family planning work level and other factors, in the case of no adjustment of the fertility policy, the population natural growth of our city declined year by year, before and after 2018 to achieve zero growth, < br />
to enter the acceleration and negative increase thereafter. For a long time. After the "two child" policy was liberalized, our city was born 100 thousand more in -2020 in 2014, postponing the decline rate of natural population growth and pushed the zero growth time for 2 to 3 years, but it will not fundamentally change the trend of population development.
director of the development and Planning Office of the Municipal Population Planning Commission, Zhan Yongsheng, said that the adjustment of fertility policy will inevitably result in the accumulation of fertility and the birth peak. The peak year is expected to be 2016. The number of people born in this year is 80 thousand, 20 thousand more than that in normal years, and nearly 30 thousand people are more than those who do not adjust their fertility policy.
in the situation of relatively stable supply of social and public resources, a sudden increase in the birth population of a certain year will make the population of this age group meet the shortage of resources at various stages, such as admission, admission, employment and pension. In this regard, the Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission said that they would plan ahead in advance, strengthen publicity and guidance, minimize fertility and divert the birth peak.
countermeasures: preparedness plan, focus on improving the quality of the birth population, optimizing the sex structure of birth, and family planning service. After the implementation of
"two child alone" policy, the majority of those who are in line with the two child policy have become less and less stressed. Sun Juntao said that under the new historical situation, the transition from "management" to "service" has become an inevitable trend in the new historical situation. More efforts should be made to improve the quality of the birth population, optimize the structure of the birth sex, and serve family planning family.
according to the survey data, among the population prepared for the "two child" before pregnancy, the age span is large and the average age is high, and some of the people of childbearing age may be the older women. In this regard, the city's population planning committee has made a detailed technical service "plan", and how to better the pregnancy and childbirth health care, how to better avoid the occurrence of birth defects and other aspects of clear measures. Among them, the city will focus on increasing the pre pregnancy eugenic health examination of the elderly population this year to reduce the risk of birth defects.
in addition, the traditional family planning system based on household registration has been difficult to adapt to the fact that the population flows frequently, which has caused a series of problems such as difficult, difficult management and difficult service. Next, the city will also set up a top-down population information application system, break the "information barrier", transform the results of information construction into the efficiency of family planning work, and make the masses feel convenient and quick.
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