Ji'nan property market 3 quarter discount prevails and regulates several future housing prices.
how will the property market develop in the future? Will house prices in Ji'nan descend? On the 19 day, the real estate market, including Ji'nan, published the "first half of 2011 national real estate market review and the next half year outlook" report, pointing out that in a long period of time, the real estate market will be transformed from policy guidance to market power, and the future of the real estate market will be dominated by market forces in the future for a long period of time. Within a year, the potential supply of the whole country will increase substantially, and the property market will gradually develop in the direction of the government's expectation. Specifically to Ji'nan, the product of rigid demand (first place and first improvement) will still be the mainstream of the market. With the increase of supply and intensification of competition, a large range of discount promotions may come in the third quarter of this year.
the first half of the first half of the property market expression regulation and control expected to basically achieve
the 6 major characteristics of the national property market
one is a rapid rise in housing prices has been significantly curbed. The change of housing price in 70 large and medium cities of China published by the National Bureau of statistics in June shows that the measures of the government to restrain the rapid rise of house prices have achieved remarkable results, but the rate of house prices in most cities is still rising, especially the two or three line cities of unrestricted purchase have become the leader of price rises, and the way of control is a long way to go.
Second, the market is still active and demand is still very strong. The data showed that in the first half of the year, the sales of commodity housing in the first half of China, the growth of new construction slowed down, but still maintained positive growth. The sales area of the whole country increased by 12.1% year-on-year, indicating that the market is still active. At the same time, under the background of high performance and policy tightening, Wanke, Hengda, Lvcheng, CNOOC, Pauli, Vanda, green space and other housing enterprises still have better target completion rate in the first half of the year, indicating that the market demand is still relatively strong.
Third, the market focus shifted significantly to the two or three tier cities. Statistics show that the first half of the first half of the first half of the city (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) sales area in the country is only 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points than last year, the second line cities (other provincial cities, municipalities and single cities) accounted for 30.2%, down 0.26 percentage points than last year, three line cities (cities) accounted for 65.2%, up 0.36 percentage points than last year. .
Fourth, regulatory policies are steadily being digested. At present, the housing market regulation policy is concentrated on the loan, purchase restriction, price limit and the supply of affordable housing. At present, the influence of the limit loan and the limit purchase policy has declined, the housing shortage has led to the obvious lack of confidence of the buyers, and the target of housing price regulation is considered to be a disguised price increase. Therefore, the "five new country" clearly proposed that the two or three line cities of the house price rise too fast should be restricted, and may be in the control target of house prices. And strengthen the implementation of the guarantee housing construction.
5, the market concentration has been significantly improved. The data show that in the first half of the year, the first 10 largest housing enterprises accounted for 13.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than last year; the top 20 big houses accounted for 18%, up 3.6 percentage points from last year. Vanke, Zhonghai, Hengda, poly, Huarun and other housing enterprises in the first half of the year sales grew by more than 50%, significantly higher than the national average.
six, monetary policy has been implemented steadily, and developers' capital chain is tightening up. Data show that the first half of the real estate development funding sources index has been lower than 100 in April, indicating that developers capital chain is not optimistic. In the first half of the year, the average premium rate of 35 large and medium-sized cities fell to 12.7%, and the rate of racket was raised to 28.9%.
Ji'nan property market supply and demand is rising steadily
specifically to Ji'nan, the supply of land market in Ji'nan is significantly reduced in the first half of the year, only 60 and 1 million 895 thousand square meters of new supply in half a year, only 55% of the same period last year. By this effect, land transactions 43, 1 million 212 thousand square meters, the transaction area is only half of the same period last year, at the same time under the impact of the land maximum price policy, multiple land racket. From the point of view of the transaction price, although the land auction is fierce, the floor land price of the transaction land is mostly lower than the price of the previous area, and the land market transaction tends to be rational under the influence of the regulation policy.
residential market, Ji'nan market remained active in the first half of the year, and demand remained strong. According to the World Federation of Jardine statistics, the total supply of new commodity housing in the first half of the city was 17640 sets and 1 million 962 thousand square meters, up 65.8% and 64.5% compared with the same year. The new supply was rising month by month, especially in 5 and June, and the new number of newly added units rose 70% in the same month, and the area rose by 75%. Turnover rose sharply compared with the same period last year, a total turnover of 1 million 379 thousand square meters in the first half, up 65.8% over the same period last year.
cost-effective products continue to sell well, just need products gradually become the mainstream of supply, just need customers is an important group to support the property market. The combination of "brand", "just need products" and "low price" has become the main force in market transaction. In order to cater to the market, developers actively adjust the push strategy, pushing the products that are just needed to compete for effective customers under the policy environment. In the last half of the year, the price of newly built residential houses in Ji'nan has risen steadily, but the increase has slowed obviously. The previous June data issued by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the price of newly built residential houses in Ji'nan rose by 2.1% in the first half of the year.
the next half of the second half of the property market expectations regulation does not loose competition intensifies
1 years for greater than demand or become a normal
business analysis, the second half of the decision to determine the core elements of the real estate market one is policy, the two is the market supply and demand force. The "five new countries" has transmitted strong signals to continue to strengthen control. In the second half of the year, we will focus on increasing the target of house price control, housing construction and the implementation of the limited purchase policy of some housing prices. In terms of market supply and demand, the potential supply in the second half of the year and in the first half of next year is expected to increase substantially in the first half of the year. The supply will be larger than the demand or become a normal situation. The future market will turn from policy leading to market force dominated situation.
World Federation of real estate believes that house prices have not yet fallen substantially, in order to prevent policy withdrawal from retaliation of possible retaliatory prices, the policy will be long-term and will be strengthened and strengthened in the future. If house prices continue to stand up or go high in the future, the policy scope will continue to expand or have new policies. Come on.
from the market supply and demand and volume price trend, the second half of the country's commodity housing supply will be rapidly released in the second half of the second half of the supply will also be extended to the three or four quarter, making the supply and marketing gap peak in the 1 quarter of 2012, the house price is facing greater downward pressure. From the 4 quarter of this year to the 1 quarter of next year, the probability of house price adjustment will be increased by market supply and demand. With the release of the "new country five," the expectations of home buyers' downward trend in housing prices have further increased, exacerbating the uncertainty of the future.
the 3 quarter of Ji'nan property market or the prevalence of
specific to Ji'nan, industry analysts believe that in the second half of the year Ji'nan still has 3 million 726 thousand square meters of land need to be launched, Ji'nan is expected to usher in the peak of land concentration in the third quarter, with the continuous refinement of the regulatory policy, land in the second half of the year Transactions will become more rational, developers will take a positive attitude, and commercial housing projects to build a certain proportion of public rental housing or will become a trend.
housing market, because most developers did not complete the established task in the first half of the year, the 3 quarter will be the last one to complete the whole year's task. At the same time, it is affected by monetary policy, the cumulative effect of interest rate increases is centrally released, the cost and difficulty of enterprise financing will be further increased, and the capital chain of the developers will be more tense. Thus force some developers to increase shipments, so it is expected that in the second half of the year, there will be a centralized release phenomenon, the supply is expected to further increase. From the supply structure, the first half of the first half of the market is expected to be the mainstream of the supply will still be the supply, many improved products will continue to face strong market pressure, There may be more marketing tools to meet the market, and the price of new housing will be more rational.
and the influence of monetary policy, the superposition effect of several interest rate increases gradually appears, many buyers have reached the critical point, so the increase of loan interest rate and the increase of loan difficulty will force some buyers to give up or postpone the purchase plan. The impact of end products is particularly evident.
although house prices in Ji'nan did not decline in the first half of the year, but in the end of June, due to the pressure of competition, some projects have already appeared "start price", "special price" and other price propaganda, and the market has already opened "price war". People in the Shandong region of the World Federation of real estate expect that as the market competition intensifies in the second half of the year, macro regulation is still not relaxed, the pricing of developers will be more rational, and a wide range of discounted promotions may appear in the third quarter of this year.