21 century economic report,
21 Century Economic Research Institute combed the birth rate of the permanent population published by the Statistics Bureau of various provinces. After the implementation of the overall two child policy in 2016, the highest and largest growth rate of the permanent population was in Shandong. The birth rate reached 17.89.amp; permil, which was 5.34 thousandths higher than the previous year.
according to this, the two permanent childbearing wishes of Shandong permanent residents in 2016 are the strongest in the country. The proportion of two children born in Shandong in 2016 was 63.3%, which is nearly 20 percentage points higher than that of the national average of 45%. The birth rate of
is also higher than that of Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing. The birth rate of resident population in three places in 2016 increased by 1.53, 1.48 and 1.36 points compared with the last year, and the increase was second to fourth in the country respectively.
carding found that after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy in 2016, the birth rate of the provinces with relatively high household income increased rapidly. In the areas where the income of the general residents is low, the rate of birth change is not obvious.
however, the developed provinces only have a rapid increase in birth rate, and the overall birth rate is still on the back. The more developed economy and the less childbearing rule still exists.
Shandong residents are most willing to have two children
the first year of the national implementation of the two child policy. The birth rate of the permanent resident population in 2016 reached 17.89.amp; permil, an increase of 5.34 thousand points over the previous year. The birth rate in Shandong is the first in the country.
the birth rate of permanent residents in Shandong exceeded that of Tibet 15.79.amp and permil in 2016. Previous years in Tibet and Xinjiang, the fertility rate was 15.amp; permil-17.amp; permil, the first or second in the country, but the two - child birth in Tibet and Xinjiang was more common because of the policy. In
2016, the number of births in Shandong province reached 1 million 770 thousand, an increase of 530 thousand compared with the same period last year, an increase of 42.7%. One child accounted for 34.2% of the total number of births, an increase of 15.7% over the same period, and two children accounted for 63.3%, an increase of 69.9%. Shandong has a small floating population and a low proportion of net inflow. The two child population is mainly local household population.
foreign population in Beijing and Shanghai decreased by 151 thousand and 14 thousand and 500 in 2016 compared with 2015. In 2016, the number of foreign permanent residents in Tianjin was 5 million 75 thousand and 400, an increase of 71 thousand and 900 over the same period, but the number of new residents was significantly lower than that of 241 thousand and 700 in 2015. Tianjin has a permanent population of 15 million 621 thousand and 200 in 2016, an increase of 151 thousand and 700 over the end of last year, and more than 110 thousand new births in 2016. It can be estimated that fertility in Tianjin and Beijing and Shanghai is accelerated mainly because of inflow of population.
data from Beijing Health Planning Commission showed that in 2016, the number of newborns in Beijing was 280 thousand, an increase of 33% over 2015 and 30% of two children. According to the statistics of Shanghai Bureau of statistics, the total number of permanent residents in Shanghai in 2016 was 218 thousand and 400, an increase of 20% over the same period last year. The birth rates in Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing in
2016 increased by 1.53, 1.48, and 1.36 thousand points, respectively, from the previous year, with a range of second to fourth in the country.
the birth rate of permanent residents in other areas is increased rapidly in Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Hebei. In 2016, the birth rate in these areas increased by more than 1 thousand points, and the increase was fifth to eighth in the country respectively. The number of new born population in Hubei in 2016 was 706 thousand and 500, an increase of 12.8% over the previous year. Considering the reduction of one child, the proportion of the actual two children increased rapidly.
there are also many provinces where the birth rate of permanent residents is not affected by the comprehensive two child policy. For example, the birth rate of permanent residents in Tibet and Hainan in 2016 was at the same level as that of the previous year. The birth rate of permanent residents in Hunan, Qinghai, Gansu, Guangxi, Xinjiang and Jilin in 2016 was even lower than that in 2015.
compared with the data of the past ten years, the birth rate of permanent residents in other provinces in 2016, in addition to the continuing decline in the birth rate of the permanent residents in Jilin, has been relatively stable in the past 10 years, and it is clear that the fertility will of the two children is not strong in these provinces.
it is noteworthy that the birth rate in 2016 is more than 1 thousand points in the previous year, with only 8, while 6 in the provinces with negative growth.
stimulating two child fertility core is to increase revenue?
the birth rate in Shandong and other provinces, despite the rapid increase in the birth rate of the total two - child policy, does not indicate that the birthrate in these provinces will continue to grow substantially.
the number of women of childbearing age decreased by about 5000000 in the whole country, and Shandong also dropped significantly. Taking Ji'nan as an example, the fertility rate of women aged 25 to 35 in 2015 was 540 thousand, and in 2020 it would drop to 440 thousand, down by 20 thousand per year.
in fact, in 2016, the birth rate of the permanent population grew out of the previous provinces, many of which belonged to the developed areas, that is, the disposable income level of the residents was in the provinces in the front of the country.
for example, the four regions with the fastest rising birth rate in 2016 (Shandong, Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing) had a high level of income in the first half of 2017. The per capita disposable income of residents in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin is the first, second, and fourth in the country, reaching 29 thousand and 900 yuan, 28 thousand and 500 yuan and 19 thousand and 700 yuan respectively. Shandong also reached 13 thousand and 800 yuan, the ninth in the country.
Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian with high disposable income of residents, in 2016, the birth rate of permanent residents increased year by year.
and after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the birth rate of the permanent population has not been significantly increased or even decreased, mostly in places with lower disposable income, such as Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and so on. However, it is also important to note that the overall two child policy in these areas is not obvious to the effect of encouraging birth. It is also related to the more than two children in the past (conforming to the policy), and the actual fertility level in these areas is not low.
at the same time, the more economically developed areas, the lower the birth rate rule did not break. Even if the birth rate increases significantly, the actual birth rate is relatively low.
2016 comprehensive two child policy implementation, in addition to Shandong, Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, the permanent resident birth rate is 7.37.amp; permil, 9.amp; permil, 9.32.amp; permil, the national reciprocal fourth, fifth, seventh. Similarly, Guangdong, Zhejiang and other places where the economy is developed and the income level of residents is high, the birth rate of permanent residents in 2015 and 2016 is also close to the whole country.
so, in a comprehensive way, in some developed provinces, despite the strong willingness of the population to have two children in a short period of time, the rate of birth rate may soon decline after the period of birth accumulation.
the previous Beijing related departments calculated that Beijing was in line with the total two child policy and the number of permanent women of childbearing age of second children increased by 2 million 360 thousand. It is expected to add 580 thousand of the new permanent births from 2017 to 2021, and the annual total population will reach 300 thousand.
Fang Laiying, director of Beijing Health Planning Commission, introduced this year that the Beijing Planning Commission expects the baby boom to continue for two years. In 2019, the birth peak is expected to fall.