There is no two child effect on birth rate. Local recommendations encourage fertility.
21 century economic reporting
1% population sampling data from the whole country showed that the birth rate in Guangxi and Gansu was 13.82 per thousand and 12.18 per thousand in 2016, respectively, lower than 14.05 per thousand and 12.36 per thousand in the previous year.
more provinces, though the birth rate has picked up, is not yet expected. The birth rate of Jiangxi in 2016 was 13.41 per thousand, a slight increase compared to the level of 13.20 per thousand in 2015.
2016 survey conducted by the Shaanxi Provincial Bureau of statistics showed that nearly 60% families were unwilling to give birth to two children. In 2016, the Bureau of statistics of Sichuan also showed that the proportion of two children who did not plan to give birth was 65.5%.
the decline of the birth rate means that the aging of the population is deepening. The Hunan Bureau of statistics published the report that the subjective willingness of women of childbearing age in Hunan is not high and the degree of aging is deepening. It should be considered as early as possible to further adjust the policy of fertility, and support and encourage no delay in fertility.
Pan Jianlei, a doctor of population of Beijing Administrative College, said that from the overall situation of the country, women of childbearing age after the implementation of the two - child policy are not very positive, which is related to the high birth cost and the change of young people's ideas.
Pan Jianlei believes that if the two - child birth in a few years is still not active, the policy may be further adjusted, mainly to solve the problem of continuing deepening of aging.
the "two child effect" is not obvious
1% of the population statistics published in all parts of the country showed that after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the actual population birth rate did not significantly increase, part or even decline.
Hainan has a population birth rate of 14.57 per thousand in 2016, which is consistent with the birth rate in 2015. In 2016, the birth rate of Jiangxi and Shaanxi was 13.45 per thousand and 10.64 per thousand, respectively, which rose 13.20 per thousand and 10.10 per thousand in 2015.
the birth rate of Hebei in 2016 was 12.42 per thousand, higher than that of the previous year, 11.35 per thousand. The data of the Shandong Health Planning Commission is that in 2016, the new birth population was 1 million 770 thousand, an increase of about 500000 over the previous year, but the actual total birth rate was below 12 per thousand as the province's permanent resident population was nearly 100 million.
data from Guangxi, Gansu and other places show that the birth rate is decreasing.
Guangxi and Gansu in 2016, the birth rate was 13.82 per thousand, 12.18 per thousand, lower than 14.05 and 12.36 per thousand in the previous year. Guangxi was born in 2016 with a population of 770 thousand people, up from 716 thousand in 2015, but its birth rate declined because the total population of the permanent population increased more rapidly in 2016. Gansu was born 317 thousand and 900 in 2016, down from 321 thousand and 200 in the previous year.
the new birth population of Hunan in 2016 was less than 950 thousand, down from the previous year. The birth rate of the province in 2016 was higher than that in 2015, but the general fertility rate continued to fall.
professor Jiang Quanbao of Xi'an Jiao Tong University population believes that the population of Shandong is huge, and the family planning work has been implemented well before. The province is more concerned about the family and the concept of prosperity, especially for families who are about to withdraw from their childbearing age. After the "total two child" policy has been liberalized, the opportunity to have a chance to have a baby has a higher fertility level.
"after the comprehensive two child policy in 2016, people's fertility desire is not high, even if it is released policy, it is very difficult to raise the fertility level." Jiang Quanbao said that the population of different provinces is very different, and the childbearing age and childbearing rate of women of childbearing age are also different.
the fertility rate in most areas is not high, which may be related to factors such as life stress.
data from the National Bureau of statistics showed that 17 million 860 thousand people were born in 2016, an increase of 1 million 310 thousand more than the previous year, and about 90000000 couples met two children in the year.
why is the birth rate not high? The survey by the Hunan Bureau of statistics shows that this is related to a decline in childbearing age and willingness to give birth. Since
2012, the general fertility rate of 15-49 year old women of childbearing age in Hunan has continued to decline, to 55.15 per thousand in 2016, down 0.51 points from 2015. The decline in fertility is the decline in the number of births. Around 2011, the number of women of childbearing age at 20-40 years old in Hunan was 9 million 970 thousand, down nearly 10% from 11 million 100 thousand in 2010.
in addition, childbearing age women's reproductive desire is not high. According to the survey data of the Hunan Bureau of statistics, the proportion of women who do not want to have a second child is 68.04% among women of childbearing age at the age of 15-50, and 40.91% of the 20-40 year old women of childbearing age.
Yang Changwen, deputy director of the population Department of the Hunan Statistics Bureau, said that many couples used to work outside and are now returning together, and those women of childbearing age are not willing to have two children. If women are not willing to have two children, the aging will be deepened, which will have a huge impact on the country and Hunan province.
the local statistical bureau recommends encouraging the birth of
the Hunan Statistical Bureau issued a report suggesting that early consideration should be given to further adjusting the family planning policy.
survey data show that the people's fertility wishes have fallen sharply. Even if the birth restrictions are lifted and other objective factors are restricted, the growth rate of population is not likely to appear explosive growth. Therefore, it is suggested that the birth policy should conform to the current situation and adjust in time to avoid a sharp decline in the birth rate and delay the aging process.
the report points out that high childbearing costs and high economic pressure are the primary reasons for restricting the birth of a second child, and the government should study and introduce relevant policies to give a certain support to the second child.
in addition, the maternity leave rights of both husband and wife are strictly safeguarded from the policies and regulations. On the basis of maternity leave, the study of parental leave and children's sick care will be studied, and the needs of the second child women are fully considered and safeguarded. In addition, we should improve the construction of social care support system to relieve the worries of dual working families.
Pan Jianlei, a doctor of population of the Beijing Institute of administration, believes that many places of childbearing age women are reluctant to give birth to two children because of the high cost of living, for example, in many places, the house prices are not low. There are also positive places to give birth to two children, but for the whole country, the situation of two children is obviously lower than expected.
"pay attention to avoid the lack of young people in Japan and the lack of labor force." Pan Jianlei said that the aging of China's population is deepening.
data show that, because of the low birth rate, Hunan and the whole country entered the aging area in 1998 and 2000 respectively (the proportion of the population over 60 years and above is over 10%).
2016 has 17 million 860 thousand births throughout the year, an increase of 1 million 310 thousand over the previous year, with a birth rate of 12.95 per thousand. There are 230 million 860 thousand people aged 60 and above, accounting for 16.7% of the total population. At this rate, by 2030, 30% of the population will be elderly.
Jiang Quanbao, a professor of population at Xi'an Jiao Tong University, believes that the next step should be to change the concept of family planning in the past and establish a friendly social atmosphere in the whole society. It is necessary to adopt the policy of encouraging fertility, such as providing full coverage of reproductive support services for medical care, establishing a whole stage compulsory education system from kindergarten to high school, providing corresponding fertility subsidies, and encouraging materially to encourage fertility.