11 month 30, the chief editor of the population Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Social Sciences Literature Publishing House and labor Green Book: China's population and labor issue According to No.17, the development experience of other countries shows that with the change of people's lifestyles and the repeated delay in marriage and childbearing age, people's fertility will and reproductive behavior may be further reduced. In order to avoid falling into the "low fertility rate trap", China may need further relaxation of fertility restrictions in the future. And even cancel the birth limit.
current
two children policy is cold
labor resources shrinking and population ageing inevitably
in Beijing's "senior information society of population and development" in November 26th this year, the deputy director of the National Health Planning Commission, Wang Peian, will be born over 17 million 500 thousand in 2016. This figure is only 950 thousand higher than that of the 16 million 550 thousand born population in 2015. The total number of births in 2014 was 16 million 870 thousand, compared with 630 thousand in 2016.
there are 90 million couples in the country who are currently fit to have two children, that is to say, there are only about 1% children who actually have two children.
from the total fertility rate (the total number of children born in a woman's lifetime), the whole country is also showing a downward trend, which reflects that women's fertility is decreasing. What is the total fertility rate of the total population in China? Since 1991, all walks of life have been arguing about this. In October this year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the result of the 1% population inspection in 2015, which lasted for more than 20 years. 1.047 of the super low fertility rate, such as huge stones into the water, aroused great waves.
although there are also experts saying that China has entered the "low fertility rate trap" has no basis, but it is undeniable that the population is the basic element of a country's competitiveness. Without a demographic dividend, a shield is less competitive. After deducting the role of technological progress and urbanization, population decline will bring about a decline in per capita GDP. If you don't believe it, look at neighboring countries Japan: the long term low fertility rate is regarded as the fundamental reason for the stagnation of the Japanese economy for more than 20 years.
the results of the fourth sampling survey on the living conditions of the elderly people in urban and rural China last month showed that at the end of 2015, the elderly population of China (over 60 years old) reached 222 million, accounting for about 16.1% of the total population. According to UN 10%, namely, the standard of aging society, the degree of aging in China has been very high. Adjustment of fertility policy can not change the trajectory of labor force population, nor can it save the aging trend of population. No longer having the advantage of labor resources is a problem that can not be evade under the new normal economic situation of our country.