Re: professor of Peking University: the Department concerned is still not aware of the risk of low birth risk.

Guo Zhigang: Yes, it's a long time. So I say that a key problem of China's population is that no one is really responsible for the runaway of low fertility and aging. At present, the understanding of the population situation is in place by the Central Committee, and the high-level leaders have been in place in many speeches. However, in the specific implementation, in the management of the corresponding planning and implementation, it is still not clear who is responsible for the loss of control of the low birth and aging.

in the past, China has set up a red line of population in China's population development, and it is imperative not to exceed this red line anyway. But not the lower the better? It seems not now, so the single upper limit control is problematic and the current problem is more serious, because the population is too low to cause great harm to the population structure, not a credit, but a crime.

the speed of aging is getting faster and faster, but this is not a clear indicator of control, nor is it clear that any department is responsible for aging over the standard. Therefore, we are not divorced from the previous single population target control model, and do not adapt to a new strategic task for population aging to respond to the aging of population. I was wondering, from the demography point of view, is it feasible to draw a red line for aging? Like our red line for the total number of people, can it be a red line for aging, and we should take various measures to avoid the red line? It must be clear which departments are responsible for monitoring, which departments make and organize the response. Measures, which departments to cooperate with each other. Otherwise, the direction of population strategy is not clear enough, and without specific targets and no responsibility departments, it will easily lead to runaway control.

aging is a matter of decision. This is also the result of family planning in the first 40 years. The number of the last generation is small, and the number of the next generation is naturally small, and the aging of the population is naturally high. How can

slow down the development of aging? Now, the per capita life expectancy is increasing. This is a factor that accelerates aging. Of course, slowing down aging can not depend on death. But, in the past, we have been strictly controlling population growth for more than 30 years with the number of people, and all the things we can think of are all used, right, right, inappropriate, all used. There is little room for it. However, we need to learn how to encourage fertility and increase the number of births. We need to learn from them, and we need to radically change our old concepts and inertial thinking.

Daily: people used to think that the negative growth of China's population is very remote. According to the prediction of demographers, there may be negative growth in 6-7 years. What does negative population growth mean?

Guo Zhigang: the cycle of population reproduction is very long and has its own strong inertia, so it is very important to study population trends when making policy. It is far more important to judge the trend of population and the current stage in which we are in this trend. Now the trend of low fertility in China is very obvious, aging is threatening, and the positive growth of population is turning to negative growth. It is noteworthy that this trend will not only affect next year, but will affect the past hundred years. Housewives will have a plan not to be like the moonlight clan, and wait until they really have no food to eat. This is especially true for population reproduction. The population strategy must be highly forward-looking.

children born today will only be 20 years later. Therefore, the current fertility policy should be determined according to the trend. In my opinion, the current awareness of the risk of low birth and aging is not in place, and the policies and measures need to be further adjusted, and the task of reform is still difficult. Fortunately, the impasse has been broken, and the result of reform is conducive to raising awareness. From the general trend of population development to deal with the risk of low birth and aging, after a total of two children, the birth policy should be adjusted to a comprehensive release as soon as possible, even according to the actual needs to introduce various policies to encourage fertility. At the same time, it is necessary to carefully clean out the outdated, divorced, wrong population theories, ideas, and knowledge to ensure that these mistakes can not continue to be left and right at all levels of policy formulation.