first financial daily
the first finance Daily reporter interviewed the Chinese population earlier. The demographer, Professor Guo Zhigang of the Department of sociology, Peking University, who has been studying the problem of low fertility and has been doing in-depth studies, listened to the many misunderstandings in the Chinese population, and the risks that many people have not yet realized and are already approaching us.
the biggest risk lies in the lack of understanding of the low birth risk
Daily: the two - child policy has been liberalized now, and the low fertility situation in China has almost become a consensus. You are the first demographers to pay attention to the problem of low fertility. According to your research, how low is the total fertility rate of China's population now? 1.4? Or lower?
Guo Zhigang: in fact, the most worrying problem is not how low the total fertility rate is in China, but from the government to the public at the low level. There is a serious lack of understanding of the level, regularity and risk of childbearing.
as early as 2000, China proposed to stabilize the low fertility level. This shows that the fertility rate has been recognized. Later, the formulation changed somewhat, which was called stable low fertility level.
there is a problem. How much is the moderation? 2.1 is the replacement level of the generation, and 2.1 is the low fertility level. So how much is moderation? This is a very vague concept. In fact, this is not clear to today. However, it left a gap, low fertility level is a good thing, or the current goal of population work to pursue. The vague concept of
leads to the lack of awareness of low fertility reality and risk by the departments concerned. For example, the previous census, the relevant departments for the census data, always through indirect estimation of the total fertility rate to be higher, and a large range of adjustment, always unwilling to face the fact that the fertility rate is too low. In the past many years, it was 1.8, now 1.8, and 1.6, which is still not small compared with 1.3 or even lower. Until now, there is still controversy about how high the total fertility rate is.
these are not general academic controversies, which directly affect policy promulgation and practical management. In the past, the debate was whether the fertility policy could not be adjusted at all, and now it depends on which step the policy can be adjusted to.
another harmful idea in population management is to overlook the population. That is, the less the better the population is, the better the fertility rate is, the better. In the past three countries, five years of population planning, the last result is the actual population growth is less than the original target of 20 million people. This originally reflects the seriousness of the problem of low fertility and low birth rate, but it has not aroused the attention of the competent authorities, and is even regarded as a result of controlling population. Why does this happen? Because the goal is only to determine the upper limit of population growth and no lower limit. No more than the upper limit is to complete the task, below the target is to overfulfill the task, the lower the more the greater the merit. What is the lower limit of
, in fact, the indirect expression of the aging degree of population. Therefore, only a population limit as the goal, the population structure has not been clearly reflected, as long as the goal is lower than the population goal, even the lower the better, the overall consideration and comprehensive governance will become empty talk, in fact, the population control system is simple. In this sense, although the total fertility rate of China has been much lower than the level of generation replacement for more than 20 years, the voice of the stable fertility policy is still high, which itself reflects the lack of sober and abnormal. Falling into such a state of confusion for a long time is a terrible thing.
now all two children have been released, but we see some strange things in the relevant documents and regulations, such as the head of the general responsibility, the continued punishment of the two children, the strict control of the three children and so on. This shows that the focus of the administration's attention is still on the number of population and the significant distortion of the population structure, but the understanding of the low fertility rate is far from in place. Although the risk is seen, it is considered that the population explosion is still the main population risk, or that the future of the human population can not be reduced as soon as possible. Oral risk.
Daily: from the survey conducted by various agencies, the Chinese people's overall fertility desire is very low, no more than 2. The data I see is 1.6 to 1.9. The actual childbearing behavior is lower than the fertility intention. Data from all sides indicate that China's demographic structure has changed dramatically. Why is it so difficult to change the concept of "too many Chinese, must strictly control the birth"?
Guo Zhigang: I think there is a deviation in the first place, and the denominator effect of population size is overemphasized. For example, "another big achievement divided by 1 billion 300 million is not big", which is used to oppose arrogance and complacency, but if "1 billion 300 million, 1 billion 400 million, or 1 billion 500 million people are bound to lead to China's development at all," it is a typical demographic determinism, completely wrong. As for "if China's population falls to several hundred million, it will become richer and stronger", but it is just the opposite expression of the same theory. In the early days of family planning, the theoretical circles had criticized these views. Today, the population of China is at a low fertility stage, and the absurdity and harm of this view are even greater. But it still has a lot of practical influence, so it should be cleared up and set things right. Besides, personal interests and departmental interests, butts determine the brain. If the policy adjustment touches my interests, I certainly do not want it to be adjusted, or even try to impede its adjustment.
is again a lazy government. The management ideas and methods formed in the past have become inertia. They do not want to move. They do not control the number of population. They are too low to control.
from the research point of view, this phenomenon also exists. For example, population studies have applied a lot of assumptions, many of which are used in the 60-70 years of the last century. Compared with that time, the demographic situation has changed enormously, and those laws have not been applied for a long time. The result of this study is bound to be very different from reality, and it can not reflect the real population development situation and trend. However, such findings often overestimate the number of births, and prove that the fertility rate is not too low, and that the birth control policy should be adjusted with the times.