Re: China's rural fertility outlook has changed. Many villagers are allowed to give birth to a second child and give up.
Huang Wenzheng, a demographer, thinks that it is easy to overestimate fertility only intuitively, and the illusions of children in rural areas will seriously affect the perception of fertility. Even some demographers may be blinded by this illusion and feel that the fertility rate investigated is not in line with their intuitive feelings.
he said, for example, if half a child lives a child, half a half life of three children, then all children, only 25% of the only children, and 75% from the three - child family, feel that the population will expand, but the fertility rate is only 2; if the fertility rate of 1/8 in China is considered, the fertility rate is 1.75. At a replacement level of 2.2, that means 20% per generation.
according to census and sample survey data, China's fertility rates in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 1.18, 1.04, 1.26 and 1.24, respectively. But the authorities have adjusted the fertility rate data to 1.5 to 1.6, on the grounds that there is a lot of concealment. There is also an illusion of overestimating fertility.
is precisely because "rural people love baby baby" stereotypes, in the process of reproductive policy adjustment, often can hear a lot of worries: in case of opening up the birth policy, how to cause a big rebound? Even if city people do not want to be born now, the rural people will have a strong desire to give birth.
from the perspective of the fertility rate of rural floating population and non floating population, such worries are unnecessary. On the contrary, the other kind of worry is practical. In the survey, the first financial daily found that even if the two children were released, the impact on rural fertility may be far less than expected.
on the one hand, with the improvement of urbanization, the proportion of rural population in the total population will continue to decline. This means that the higher fertility rate in rural areas will contribute to the overall fertility rate. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the proportion of rural population was 50.32% in 2010, and dropped to 45.23% by the end of 2014.
on the other hand, the marginal benefit of the change of fertility policy has been reduced by the reduction of some Fertility Policies and the decline of the overall fertility desire in the countryside.
in a village in the northern part of Jiangsu, Mr. Chen, the director of the village committee and the Commissioner of family planning, told the reporter that in order to complete the work index, he sometimes even secretly encouraged the villagers to exceed their lives, but there was little use.
"if you want to be born, you will not let him give birth to him too. If you do not want to be born, you will not be able to persuade him to live." Old Chen said.
Guo Zhigang, CO authored by Guo Zhigang, a demographer Wang Feng of Fudan University and the population scholar Cai Yong of North Carolina University in the United States, "China's low fertility rate and population sustainable development" points out the dilemma faced by the rural population development - a large number of working age population flow to the city, which greatly alleviates the aging of the population in cities and towns, but the same It also causes serious aging of rural population and higher total dependency ratio of rural population, which may restrict the solution of "three rural issues".
they suggest that efforts should be made to prevent the continued decline of the fertility rate in urban and rural areas and the shrinking of the population of the birth population, trying to raise the fertility rate to the level of replacement, and to strengthen the human resource reserve to respond to the rapid population aging in the next forty years.