Only 11 million of the country's 270 thousand couples enjoy re birth policy.
recently, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Cai Fang publicly said that China may open two children in two years. This allows the first Financial Daily reporter to receive several calls from friends, asking whether China will fully liberate two children in two years.
despite the evening's speech, relevant people from the State Health Planning Commission responded that there was no time frame for the two children to be fully liberalized. But the surge of comment on the Internet has led more people to face the question: when will the two two children be able to fall off after the release of a single child?
the next boot
friends ask this reporter to find out the news as soon as possible. They believe that journalists must have more sources of information. I can understand their eagerness - one is the "70 after" that both husband and wife are not the only children, and that the anxiety policy can never come out again; one is just having second children and is hesitating to pay close to 400 thousand yuan for social support. Whether the two child policy changes is significant for their families.
this newspaper reporter went to the Internet to find the source, only to find that Cai's statement has become a hot topic on the Internet. There are 103363 commentaries in one of the people's network. On micro-blog WeChat, the discussion of two children in two years is also boiling.
one sentence, "two children in an all-round way within two years", why is it so moving the eyes and hearts of the Chinese people? The reason everyone knows, not to say. The key question is, can we really let go of two children in two years? What is the basis for decision to let go or not to let go?
according to media reports, Cai Fang also said that the release of two children may not significantly increase the fertility rate; China's family planning policy, financial policy, and public policy adjustment will bring great benefits to economic growth.
as a reporter for the population, Cai Fang did not feel surprised by the "one stone stirs up waves". In recent years, the overwhelming majority of demographers have expressed concern over the low fertility rate on many occasions and appealed for the release of fertility restrictions as soon as possible. Mu Guangzong, Professor of population of Peking University, Liang Jianzhang of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Huang Wenzheng of demographers, Yi Fuxian of big country empty nest, designer Liang Zhongtang of two children in Yicheng, Professor Gu Baochang and Wang Guangzhou of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, population and development research center of Renmin University of China Wang Feng, Professor of the Institute of social development and public policy of Fudan University, discussed the necessity of releasing the birth restriction as soon as possible from different angles.
the recent rise in voices from demographers to ordinary people about the overall release of two children is due to a new background: the two child policy has been pushed aside all over the country since the beginning of this year, but it is surprising to many people that, despite the popularity of the policy, the real action There is not much husband and wife. Statistics in the first half showed that only 270 thousand of the 11 million couples who were eligible for re birth policy had applied.
in this reporter's interview with a number of demographers, the release of a separate two child is a clear signal that the population policy should move and the two - child release is early and late. Like Cai, they generally agree with one view that it is a good thing to fully liberate the two children, but it does not mean that the fertility rate will be significantly improved. Over the past 30 years, the family planning policy has formed a special concept of childbirth throughout the country. Under this concept of fertility, only one child is rationalized or passively, and the cost of birth is high, resulting in only about 1.2 of the total fertility rate at present. In this case, even if the birth restriction is released, it is impossible to raise the fertility rate significantly. Judging from the follow-up investigation conducted in Beijing, Jiangsu and Hubei, this kind of judgement is basically true.
sunshine decision
China's birth policy can be said to be the most interesting public policy. From the change of this policy, the most needed is to let the sun come in and make the formulation and change of the public policy transparent, because the policy is closely related to the well-being of everyone. Close.
technically, it is not difficult to achieve this. China carries out a national census every ten years. There is a one percent population check every five years, and a census of different levels and ranges of various local institutions. Some basic data should be very clear, such as the number of women of childbearing age, the total fertility rate, and so on. But the facts are not so satisfactory. A simple example of
is that the most basic data in the past decades - the total fertility rate has been cut off. At one time, the government insisted that China's total fertility rate was stable at 1.8, adjusted for six and 1.6 and 1.5 respectively. The total fertility rate adhered to by different demographers ranged from 1.18 to 1.5.
Wang Guangzhou said in an interview with the first financial daily, a headache for population research is that it is not free to get the data you want. Taking the sixth census as an example, although the state allocated 8 billion yuan to the census, the data available to the research institutions in the end are very limited.
Liang Zhongtang, a demographer, once said that China's population policy is a mirror of Chinese society and a mirror of China's public policy. Wang Feng believes that the public policy of the population must keep pace with the times, people based, to see the population changes, to see the changes in the population age structure and fertility rate, to open discussion and to listen to the opinions of scholars, otherwise, the future will form a huge population penetration, not only a demographic dividend, but also an anti demographic dividend. Come to hinder the development of the economy.
when the full two - child boot fell off, to answer this question scientifically and impartially, the sun must be exposed to this public policy decision. Open, transparent and scientific decision-making can help the whole country and individuals to reduce profits in the vital interests of this relationship.