In Shandong, over 70% separate families want to have two children, or 200 thousand more people each year.
source: Life Daily reporter Wang Fuxiao
how many new population will be added every year in our province if let go of the policy of two children alone? Which year will the peak of fertility occur? How much will the number of new population in Ji'nan be? The increase of population will bring the social resources of education and medical care. What impact? Will the new population bring about a change in the existing sex ratio?
cancellation of birth spacing: in 5 years, a report on the work of the Shandong provincial government in this year is expected to be more than 127 million children. The province has proposed that the natural growth rate of population is controlled by 8.5 per thousand, higher than about 5 per thousand in previous years. Wu Cuilan, deputy secretary of the Party committee of the Provincial Health Planning Commission, said that this is the main reason for the cancellation of the second child birth interval and the "two child alone" policy.
reporters learned from the Provincial Planning Commission that at the end of 2012, the total population of our province reached 96 million 848 thousand and 700, which was only slightly smaller than those in Henan and Guangdong provinces. According to the birth rate, 1 million 150 thousand people were born in the province in 2012, with a birth rate of 11.9 per thousand and a natural growth rate of 4.95 per thousand.
according to the "Shandong province population and family planning regulations" revised in 2013, our province abolished the birth spacing in July 1st last year. It is expected to produce about 1 million 270 thousand of two children in 5 years, and the population will increase more after the "liberalized two child". Wu Cuilan revealed that although many provinces in the country have released the policy of "separate two children", the central government has repeated repeated orders and insisted on the family planning policy. "Taking Shandong as an example, during the '12th Five-Year' period, although the birth control was quite tight, it increased a net population of about 600000 people a year, equivalent to a county. Let alone "two children" benefit the country and the people, but not to abandon family planning, we must persist. We should correctly understand the adjustment of family planning policy, prevent the emergence of fertility and rebound of illegal births. The implementation of "two separate children": about 200000 people in the whole province each year, the survey shows that more than 70% of the "separate" families in our province have the desire to have a second child. If we start the implementation of the policy of "separate two births", Shandong will increase about 200000 births per year in recent years.
last June, the second meeting of the twelve Standing Committee of the provincial people's Congress passed the amendment to the regulations on population and family planning in Shandong province. According to the estimates, there are 1 million 270 thousand people under the age of 29 in Shandong and the two child birth policy. It is estimated that from 2014 to 2018, the average annual birth rate of two children is about 250 thousand, and the rate of birth control in a few years may break through 15 per thousand. If we start the policy of "giving birth to two children alone", we will increase about 200000 births every year in recent years. Affected by the superposition effect of the two policies, the population growth of cities and counties will increase significantly.
85% of the couples in our province in line with the "separate" two child policy have a willingness to have two births, and the proportion of urban couples is 70%, far higher than the average level of 60% in the country.
Ji'nan birth peak: will continue for 5 years or so, if the policy of two children alone will be liberalized, how many families in Ji'nan want a second baby? Ji'nan City Department of family planning department said, "before we have conducted a survey, Ji'nan DINK families are relatively small, no city or rural, childbearing age families want to. The proportion of the second birth is around 70%. " According to the introduction, from 1 to November last year, the population of Ji'nan was 52068, the birth rate was 8.53 per thousand, the natural growth rate was 3.44 per thousand, the legal fertility rate was 96%, and the provincial responsibility target was 1 percentage points higher.
how many births will increase per year in Ji'nan if the single two child policy is implemented? The head of the family planning department says it is expected that in 2014, the population of the city will reach 75 thousand people and the birth rate will reach 12.3 per thousand, and the birth peak will continue for about 5 years to gradually recover. Affected by the cancellation of the birth interval and the policy of opening two children alone, the Ji'nan family planning department predicted that the peak year of population production was in 2016, with a population of about 80 thousand people, 20 thousand more than the normal year, and nearly 30 thousand more than the non birth control policy.
Shandong maternity and child health care hospital and deputy dean of Shandong maternity hospital, Wang Xietong, said that after the implementation of "separate two children", the couples who meet the conditions are living in the city, and will first bring serious challenges to the provincial and municipal medical service institutions. The head of the maternal and child health care department of the Ji'nan Municipal Health Bureau said that the two child birth peak should appear after two or three years. By then, the number of births in Ji'nan will increase by 10%-15%, of which 80% will be concentrated in cities.