"We will live to be 100 years old". Who will feed us?
with the continuous progress of economic and social development, medical, health and other conditions, the young people born in recent years, especially in the city. The possibility that a district will be 100 years old will increase greatly. Living to the age of 100 is a great challenge to individuals, society and policymakers. We must face up to this challenge.
a lot of people born in recent years, a large part of it will live to 100 years old, this is not the night of the night
live to 100 years old, can be called "human". So far, people can live to 100 years old, though they are not "rare", but they are still in the minority. According to the common cognition, the average life expectancy of Chinese people has been growing very fast in recent decades, but it has not been more than 80 years old. The developed countries are also 80 years old. It is possible to reach the age of 100 in the future.
this is indeed a bold argument. According to the scientific consensus, the life expectancy is determined by the "life expectancy expectation", and the "life expectancy expectation" we usually see is "life expectancy at birth", that is, what is the life expectancy of the newborns born in the present 2017. Data from the WHO in May 2015 showed that life expectancy at birth per capita in China was 76.1, the highest in the world was still in Japan, but only 83.7 years old, far from 100 years old.
there is, however, a misunderstanding. From a statistical point of view, "life expectancy at birth" actually means that if a newborn's birth death rate stays the same in the future, the newborns may have the average number of years to survive. Since the newborns in the 2017, from now on until they grow up to their death, their "future mortality" is completely unknown, and can only be calculated and estimated with old data, and with the decline in future mortality levels, the life expectancy of newborn babies is more than expected. How much can that be more than that?
the world economic forum, "we will live to 100 years of age," the argument, is based, from the two London Business School professors Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott co authored "100 year old life". The two professors of economics and management are based on a paper published in 2009 by the famous medical journal Lancet. This article, entitled "the aging population: the challenge of the future", is a professor of Kaare Christensen (Kaare Christensen) from the Danish Center for aging research at the University of Southern Danmark. "If the average life expectancy of developed countries is increasing in twenty-first Century, most of the French, Germans, Italians, Britons, Americans, Canadians and Japanese are expected to celebrate the centenary in 2000," the paper pointed out. The paper also lists expected data on population life expectancy in some developed countries, for example, more than half of the Japanese born in 2000 are expected to live to 104 years of age; more than half of the Americans born in 2003 are expected to live to the age of 103; more than half of the Italians born in 2007 are expected to live to 104. This paper discusses the trend of life change in the past, and the changes in mortality, health and disease in the future. From a number of other signs, this statement is also supported, and the World Health Organization has pointed out that the world's growth in life expectancy from 2000 to 2015 is the fastest since 1960.
this paper has considerable influence. The world health and aging report released by the World Health Organization in 2011 also cited this paper. The world economic forum once again discussed the issue of retirement and retirement on this basis, indicating that the views of the paper have been recognized more and more. Moreover, although the original paper is mainly about the status of developed countries, many of the factors that are conducive to the growth of population life can also be established in developing countries. With the continuous development of economy and society, and the continuous progress of medical and health conditions, the possibility that young people born in recent years, especially those born in urban areas, will obviously increase the possibility of having a hundred years of age.