The professor says it's hard to protect the old age.
source: Xinhua
People's network in April 7th reported that before retirement, how much money would a person need to save for the rest of his life? This is not an easy question to answer.
3 ten thousand yuan or 10 million yuan seems to be a reasonable answer. This is determined by the different living conditions, the living city and other requirements and the different life expectancy of each person after retirement.
most people will intuitively think that 30 thousand yuan is obviously not enough, while 10 million is a bit extravagant. I am sorry, but I do not think so. If I continue to pay the bills, I will not be enough to prepare 10 million yuan to provide for the aged. To this problem, we must examine the past 20 years, rational analysis.
the first thing to estimate is how many years a person will survive after retirement. At present, Chinese statistics show that men retire at the age of 55 and are roughly 72 years old; women retire at the age of 50 and live to 74 years, so the life of men and women after retirement is 17 and 24 years, respectively. Considering that life expectancy may be further extended, most people may be inclined to think that it is necessary to save 25 years of money for a life after retirement.
what we should observe next is how to maintain the standard of living after retirement. If the life level after retirement is slightly lower than that before retirement, it is necessary to accumulate roughly 20 years' wages for 25 years of survival, which means that the cost of living after retirement is about 20% lower than before.
how much is this money? It depends on what year you retire. If you are in 1987, ask a worker who is going to retire, he may think that 30 thousand yuan is enough. The reason is that in 1987, the consumption level of residents was 565 yuan a year, of which the town was 998 yuan, then 25 thousand of the 25 years' consumption was enough. At the same time, the per capita disposable income of urban households in 1987 is 1002 yuan per year, and the average wage for urban workers is 1459 yuan per year, and the wages of 20 years will not exceed 30 thousand yuan. It can be asserted that a retired employee in 1987 could estimate the number of their pensions in the year, 30 thousand yuan is extravagant, because at that time he earned a hundred yuan a month and less per month.
but if you retire in 2007, the situation is completely changed. In terms of household consumption level, it was 565 yuan in 1987 and 7031 yuan in 2007. The consumption of urban residents in 25 years is about 300 thousand. In terms of remuneration for workers in urban units, the average wage of workers in 1987 is 1459 yuan and 24932 yuan in 2007. The per capita disposable income of urban households is 1002 yuan in 1987 and 13785 yuan in 2007, and about 275 thousand yuan -50 million yuan for 20 year wages. If a sample survey of Chinese urban residents is conducted, the vast majority of people may think that accumulating close to 1 million yuan is enough to enjoy their old age after retirement.
, however, rational and indifferent reminds us that time is not static. If there is no fundamental change in China's economic growth, the growth of residents' money income and the official pace of money issuance, we ask a worker who will retire in 2027, and he is likely to think he needs a savings of about 3 million -500 million to spend the rest of his life. More regrettable, this is only the general level of urban population, similar to the Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, such a line of cities, preparing for 10 million yuan for the aged may not be enough.
tens of millions of dollars are not enough for the aged, which seems a bit unthinkable, but this gives the root cause for the Chinese people to work hard all their lives and can't be relieved: the currency is unstable. From 1987-2007 years, the annual growth rates of M2 and M1 were 19.8% and 17% respectively. In 1990, the balance of cash in M2, M1 and circulation was 1 trillion and 530 billion, 695 billion and 264 billion 400 million, respectively, and 40 trillion, 15 trillion and 200 billion and 3 trillion and 100 billion respectively in 2007, less than 20 years, with an increase of 26, 22 and 12 times respectively. It is an important reason for one's life to work hard in his old age to accumulate the money he earned when he was young.
but this is not the most worrying. It is roughly estimated that the total pension is 10-15 times the total pension that the population is receiving after retirement. That is to say, 50 million of the elderly who are retired now are basically raised by 150 million young adults who are currently paying their pension. At present, China's coverage of social insurance funds covering five pension, unemployment, medical, work-related injury and childbearing funds is about 1 trillion and 500 billion. This balance can only support less than 5 million people who live for 25 years. Or, at present, the pension gap is about 90%, and the pension for the next 20 years is not yet available.
how much is enough for a person to retire after retirement? Who will feed the huge crowds who retire after 2027? I have no answer. What I understand is:
money is paper, which is accumulated all one's life, not necessarily Enron in the later years.