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Liu Haijie
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this is the reason that this forum is to be held because of great changes in China's economy over the past year, reflected in investment, especially in the field of securities investment. The stock market has set a new low of 1949 points on December 4, and with the convening of the central economic work conference, the market's economic situation and investment for the coming year The direction of capital has new expectations, and how to better judge the economic trend next year to grasp the certainty of investment opportunities is the first priority in the investment circle.
this forum has been invited as soon as it is issued, it gets the positive response of well-known securities dealers, banks and colleges and universities. The leaders of Qilu Securities, Hongyuan securities, CITIC Wantong Securities, Zhongyuan securities and other securities dealers, senior business or analysts, the responsible person of the Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank, has long been engaged in the certification of the Shandong University. The scholars of the voucher investment research all attended the meeting yesterday. Mr. Liu Haijie, director of the SGC Research Institute, made a keynote speech from Shanghai to Ji'nan.
after the exchange on the forum, the experts agreed that although there were still a lot of uncertainty in China's economy in 2013, the opportunity for investment to be determined can be found and grasped. That is to follow the main line of the central economic work conference and make appropriate cloth in the "new urbanization" and the related sectors. Bureau. Of course, there are some differences in the market trend of the coming year, such as the view that the best period of the stock market will appear in the first quarter next year, with views on the second half of the year, but that does not impede our grasp of structural opportunities.
the "Shandong business newspaper Lu shares 50 index" introduced by this newspaper, and the experts also agreed well. It thought it was a pioneering work in the national provincial stock real time index. At the same time, the experts also put forward constructive suggestions and suggestions on the operation of the index. This newspaper will be in the future. Demonstration and improvement. At the end of the
forum, the experts of this newspaper are invited to be "invited securities researchers". These experts will provide the most forward-looking and deepest views for our newspaper in the future, and we will also share these views to the readers in a timely manner. This edition / reporter Zhang Heng photography / reporter Zheng Tao
Hong Yuan Securities Ji'nan business department general manager Shi Wenbo:
December quotes or because of the fund ranking
Ji'nan news "since December this wave is actually the return of the net value of the fund, because the rise of the majority of the stock is the basis." Gold heavy stock... " On the investment strategy forum hosted by this newspaper yesterday, Shi Wenbo, general manager of Ji'nan Business Department of Hongyuan securities, said that after the end of the net value of the fund in December 25th, the market may have to come to an end.
Shi Wenbo, Shi Wenbo, in the analysis, said the big market since December 14th pulled out a 90 point of Changyang, continuous high consolidation, hovering, and in December 14th Changyang, while some funds, especially private funds are accelerating the shipment, the above indications are that the bank is actually a fund ranking this special. Special events have been raised, but at this time, the market does not have the conditions for sustained rise.
when talking about the trend of China's stock market in 2013, Shi Wenbo believes that the reform of the IPO system will have an important impact on the market trend in the coming year. He proposed that, although the concrete plans for the current reform have not yet come out, it is not good to judge its short-term impact on the stock market, but it is certain that it is the center of the market value. The influence of the downward movement is long term.
Liu Haijie, director of the Shandong Shen Guang Institute of Finance:
from the flow of funds to find the opportunity to determine the opportunity
Ji'nan news, "2013 is still a year of uncertainty, which at least means that there is still no systematic opportunity for the whole year, but the co-existence of structural opportunities and risks." In the "2013 Investment Strategy Forum and the Shandong commercial newspaper Lu share 50 Index seminar", Liu Haijie, director of the Shandong Shen Guang financial institute, said in the keynote speech that the opportunity for relative determination should be sought from the inflow of funds to the target.
Liu Haijie said in the analysis that the "uncertainty" of China's economy next year is mainly reflected in five aspects, namely, the increasing number of conflicts in the reform, the continued production of the traditional industry, the increase of local financial and debt crises, the weak liquidity of the stock market and the uncertainty of the international economic situation.
Liu Haijie analyzed the investment opportunities in 2013 from two angles of "top-down" and "bottom-up". In the "top-down" aspect, he proposes to focus on the investment opportunities in the fields of energy conservation, environmental protection, rail transit construction, intelligent cities, medicine, space military industry, agriculture, cultural media and other fields. From bottom to top, we first look for relatively defined opportunities from the target of inflow of funds. Next is to look for opportunities from companies that are determinable growth.
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Shandong Shen Guang Consulting Service Co., Ltd. was established in November 1994. It is one of the first batch of comprehensive professional consultancy agencies approved by the SFC with the qualification of securities consulting and practice. At present, the company has 207 employees, of whom more than 40% have master's degree and doctorate degree, and the quality of good staff has laid the foundation for the rapid development of the company.
from the organizational structure, Shandong Shen Guang has eight departments such as the comprehensive management department, the Financial Research Institute, the technical operation Department, the planning finance department, the Financial Services Department, the customer service department, the marketing department and the business department. The Shen Guang financial institute has always been the leader of the domestic research field.
Liu Haijie joined Shandong Shen Guang in 2000. He served as the senior investment adviser, strategic investment adviser and deputy director of the Shen Guang Financial Research Institute, the director of the present Shen Guang financial institute, the chief investment consultant of the Shen Guang and the China Securities Association.
Yi Maoan, associate professor of Management School of Shandong University:
the stock market will eventually return to the "barometer" function
"when the stock market is good, the market is very optimistic, no matter how high the P / E rate is; if the stock market is not good, the market is again pessimistic, this is not appropriate..." In the "2013 Investment Strategy Forum and the Shandong commercial newspaper Lu share 50 Index Symposium", Yi Maoan, an associate professor of the Shandong University management school and a securities investment expert, said that the stock market should assume the function of the economic "barometer", and the return of the price earnings ratio is inevitable.
Yi Maoan proposed that, in the past, when the price earnings ratio of the A shares was dozens of times, the market was optimistic that this was in accordance with the speed of China's economic development. According to this theory, the growth rate of GDP in China is still faster than that in western developed countries, and the high price earnings ratio still exists, but it is not.
in Yi Maoan's view, China's GDP growth rate is a few times as many times as developed countries in the west, but the price to earnings ratio is more than ten times or even dozens of times of the developed countries, which is obviously unreasonable. The reform of IPO system should reduce the P / E ratio of new shares. Only in this way, can the stock market return to its barometer.
Zhongyuan securities Ji'nan, Ji'nan through the four way business department investment adviser, Yu Xingtao:
the early decline channel has changed
"if the index or individual stock share price, each stage high point, stage low have been upwards, so it can basically judge the index or stock price. In a normal ascending channel... " Yesterday's seminar, Zhongyuan securities Ji'nan through the four way of business investment consultant Yu Xingtao from the point of view of the technical point of view, the current market can be relatively optimistic about the attitude.
in accordance with the analysis of the above trend analysis method, the Tao proposed that the market has been in a downward path since 2009, but this year December 4th this year, the index has risen by more than 200 points in a short period of more than 10 trading days, which means a change in the early decline.
at the same time, from the point of view of the style index and plate index rotation, in general, the better performance of the "bear market" is the SME board and the gem index, which is due to the extremely low turnover in the bear market, such as the trading volume of only 3. 4 billion yuan in the Shanghai stock market. Small cap stocks are relatively active because of purely conceptual speculation.