Re: pork price continued to rebound after its stop in May: Expert: seasonal recovery
the current pork price rebounded is a seasonal rebound, and the fundamentals of supply and demand have not reversed. Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Institute of agricultural information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said.
for the reason of the recent national pig price continued to rise, Zhu Zengyong analyzed from the supply angle. First, the price of pig in a continuous 3 month downturn, the pressure hurdles big pigs and backward production sows are basically clear, the farmers' supplementation of the hurdles' enthusiasm declined, and the pig's hurdles declined, to a certain extent, relieved the pressure of the sex oversupply in the pig. Pig farm information in 400 monitoring counties of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas showed that the number of pig farms decreased by 0.8% in April, down 1.5% from the same period last year. Among them, the sow population can be reduced by 1.4%, down 2.1% compared to the same period. At the same time, due to the hot weather, fattening and weight loss rate, weight loss, pigs were reduced, all helped to raise the price of pigs. The two is the weather factors affecting the transfer of pig. Due to continuous high temperature and thunderstorms in some areas, pig transport has been affected, reducing the impact of external pigs on the local market. Three, the impact of imported pork on domestic market has been reduced. The price of white meat fell to 15.05 yuan per kilogram in late May, and the average price of imported frozen pork to shore was 12.34 yuan per kilogram in the first quarter of May. According to the 12% tariff and 17% value-added tax, the cost of imported pork was 15.67 yuan / kg in the first quarter, and the price advantage of imported pork was not obvious.
pork price rise is not due to a marked decline in pig production capacity, nor is it due to a significant increase in demand for Dragon Boat Festival, but to artificially pull. Liu Tong, the manager of the Statistics Department of the Beijing new wholesale market for agricultural and sideline products, said that since the price of pork rose in late May, the proportion of large white pigs that entered the new market of Beijing was still undiminished, and the proportion of the 200 kilograms per piece of white pigs in the total amount of the market was kept at about 30%. This shows that pigs with too long hurdles are still not being digested by the market. After the market digests the long pig in the earlier period, the new pig is reappearing, and the situation of the pig supply is not changed.
Zhang Xuebiao, chief analyst of the whole industry chain analysis and early warning of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that with the increase of temperature, pork consumption will also decline seasonally. Although the Dragon Boat Festival has a certain boost to pork consumption in the short term, pork consumption will continue to decrease seasonally. In the last two years, the production capacity expansion of pigs, the production capacity of the future pig, especially the production of sow production capacity is still a long time, slaughtering and processing enterprises and imported pork traders still large stock, facing the pressure of release. Therefore, there is no fundamental change in the fundamentals of pig supply, and prices are generally in a downward spiral of cyclical fluctuations. It is expected that the stock of the sows is still large, the production performance is improved year by year, and the supply capacity of the commodity fat pig is sufficient.