Hog prices rose sharply after two weeks, followed by a slump in pig prices or until 2020.
http://news.jnnc.com//jinan/2018/0605/687235.shtml
Xinhua
the price of pig is soaring two weeks after the slump analysis said that the price of pig is depressed or will continue to
in 2020, according to economic sound "world finance and economics", the rise of pig price is opened in mid May. At the end of the day, the price of pigs fell again last week. The latest data and industry trends show that the pig cycle may not be bottomed out, and the bottom interval may be longer than expected, and there is a need for certain psychological preparation in the industry.
this year, the price of live pigs has fallen rapidly. By April, the average price of live pigs and the ratio of pig to grain in 22 provinces and municipalities had fallen below the lowest level since 2015. Until mid May, hog prices began to rebound, and is generally rising across the country. However, Xia Chenfeng, an agricultural letter interconnected analyst, told reporters that the round of the market came quickly and went fast. We counted the rise of two weeks, rising from the lowest 10 yuan, 1 kilograms, to 11.6, 11.7 yuan, or 17%, from May 15th. Then, from May 27th to now, it was a slight drop.
although it has only risen for two weeks, some farmers believe that the price will continue to rise after the concussion of the pig price, and the pig cycle has already entered the upstream area. The data also showed that in April, the number of pig farms decreased by 0.8%, down by 1.5% compared to the same period, and the situation of oversupply of live pigs was easing. However, the industry is not optimistic about the trend of pork prices this year. Zhou Hangbin, a manager of a large farm in Zhejiang, said that the price of live pigs has not bottomed out yet. The pig is still not lost, which means there is still room for downhill. If pigs are sold, they will not make money. In addition, the production capacity is further improved. Although the sow elimination rate has been slightly improved, it is still in the normal range, but the production of single sows has increased, that is to say, the total amount of storage is not reduced, so there is still room for the downside.
some analysts pointed out that the supply and demand fundamentals of the pig market have not been fundamentally improved, so it is difficult to continue the phase of inflation, and it is expected that the price will be weak in the near future. In the medium to long term, the current decline may be a longer decline in the history of pig cycle. Xia Chenfeng judged that the slump in pig prices could continue until 2020. From now on, the capacity has not been reduced to a declining stage. After the short term two or three months' loss this year, the group and big enterprises will slow down the expansion rate, but they will continue to expand according to the plan. So we judge that 2019 is still a deliverable stage.
experts remind that farmers should have sufficient psychological preparation, timely column, timely elimination of backward production sows, and raise the culture technology as soon as possible, reducing the cost of production by reducing production costs.
has also been pointed out that the pig cycle is caused by asymmetric market information. When pork prices rise, farmers expand production scale, resulting in oversupply and falling prices. After the fall of pig prices, farmers reduced production scale, resulting in a shortage of demand and prices. Therefore, we can introduce futures and other financial derivatives trading to achieve hedging.
it is understood that China's pig futures have been brewed for many years. At the beginning of this year, the SFC has officially approved the application of pig futures for the Dalian commodity exchange. However, in the view of Zhu Zengyong, vice researcher of the Institute of information research, China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the scale of pig breeding in China is low, and it is difficult for pig futures to play a real role. He said that through futures will help to guide future prices, but now there are about 40 million farmers, the bridges that connect the market and the farmers are brokers, and the farmers have no relationship with the market after they sell their pigs. If there is no effective cooperative mechanism between the financial body and the farmers and the slaughterhouse, the pig futures may only be a tool for the financial institutions to earn profits.
it is worth noting that, although the market has long been a weak shock, but in the A share market, some pig concept shares have been changed, and the shares of Luo Shan and Wen's shares have risen in succession. Among them, the cumulative increase of over 90% in May. Analysis shows that this indicates that the market lacks rational judgement on the trend of the industry.