Re: egg prices continued to fall for a ten year low: cheaper than steamed bread.
every 10 Chinese have 8 layers
Why did the price of eggs in recent ten years set a new low?
Zhuo Chuang information egg analyst Zhang Wenping told the China Daily reporter that demand continued to be sluggish, and that short term egg prices rose hopelessly. May 2-8, the national egg price rose first and then fell, the highest price was 5 yuan 2.13 yuan / Jin. After the May Day holiday, the school started school, the enterprises and institutions started working normally, the market demand was slightly better, and the earlier egg price was kept in the low position. The stock of production and circulation was basically empty, so the egg price was slightly higher. However, due to the fact that eggs are still in a state of oversupply, the market has limited acceptance of high prices. At present, the market is slower than the earlier stage, the demand is not good, the local market production, circulation stock increase, Hebei and other parts of the market affected by the H7N9 virus, leading to slow goods.
in the period from 2014 to 2015, the market of eggs is better, even can be sold to 6 yuan per Jin, because the profit of the chicken is high, the market is good, many farmers keep up with the culture, increase the amount of the store, increase the egg production rate, and cause the egg production to rise continuously. The supply is too much, and the price continues to decline. For farmers, because of asymmetric information, it is difficult to find the best selling interval. At present, the number of laying hens in China is still very high. According to Chi Hua data, the statistics of laying hens were monitored in March 2017. The number of laying hens was 1 billion 123 million in the latest. There are 1 billion 400 million people in China. Basically, there are 8 hens in every 10 Chinese people.
Sun Jiaxin analyzed the reporter from the China business daily, looking relatively stable from the demand side, which may be affected by avian flu sometimes, and short term demand is restrained. The supply level of layers is relatively large. Even if prices fall, forcing farmers to quit chicken farming, prices will not rebound immediately because there is a lag effect. But after the price declines, the supply of layers is reduced, and after a period of consolidation, it will rise again.
precision breeding and large data
or help farmers avoid risk
for years, there are always "garlic you", "Ginger you army", "rocket egg", "flying pig" on agricultural products. After a sharp increase in capacity, the supply exceeds demand, and another round of high inflation falls.
expert analysis, the current weather warming is the laying peak of laying hens, which can bring the end of this excess capacity to the end of inventory and capacity. For a long time, the information channel of farmers' butt market is limited, it is difficult to obtain the effective information of the supply and demand of agricultural products. It often expands or reduces the scale according to the market situation. It is suggested that agricultural supermarket docking, breeding direct selling, agricultural school docking, developing order agriculture, and so on, will provide more insurance channels for eggs sales and avoid market risks. It is suggested that farmers should plan for expanding their production scale after finding market sales.
however, it is still difficult for ordinary farmers to use big data.
Haitong futures senior employee Bao Liang told China Daily reporter that egg industry chain enterprises can hedge according to their own conditions. This year, the domestic spot price of eggs is in the downstream channel as a whole, and has reached a low level in the past 10 years. The market for eggs is low. Even though many small and medium-sized farmers have been hit hard, it is suggested that the hedging function in the futures market be integrated.
also some practitioners say that at present, it is mainly a number of large agricultural enterprises to recruit futures and other professionals. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are located in villages and towns, and the working environment and salary treatment are difficult to attract people who are familiar with the futures. The key is to borrow precision breeding, futures and big data, through government guidance, market led or can evade the price of egg jump jump, development of information exchange transparent scale culture, through training and learning to improve the resistance of farmers to risk.