Speculation of mung bean garlic or high and medium term trade in agricultural products
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the State Council standing meeting deployment, three ministries and commissions emergency notice, the National Bureau of price directors discussion, the central government departments within a week such intensive action, only for the original unnoticed part of the agricultural and sideline products Rising prices are believed to have threatened overall price stability and inflated inflation expectations.
was named by the National Conference on commodity prices: japonica rice, corn and other grain varieties, garlic, green beans, vegetables and other agricultural and sideline products, as well as 37 Chinese medicinal materials. This year, the prices of these agricultural and sideline products are increasing rapidly. Take mung bean as an example. In May last year, the price of Beijing supermarket was generally around 3 yuan /500 grams, and the highest price this year was 12 yuan -13 yuan /500 grams. 37 more magical, up to 500% a year.
the price trend of small agricultural products began to reverse under the threat of "cracking down on illegal activities such as hoarding and raising prices". According to the announcement of the Ministry of agriculture's China agricultural information network, in June 3rd, the bulk price of mung beans in the wholesale market of large agricultural products in Beijing was 13.5 yuan / kg. With the advent of new garlic, garlic prices are down about 20% from this year's high.
, however, under current liquidity conditions, temporarily under the pressure of mung beans and garlic, who can guarantee that they or other products will come back by the appropriate production cycle, weather factors, and so on?
why is
this round price rise, concentrated in grain and cotton oil and sugar, such bulk agricultural products In addition to small products. The price changes of these products are generally regulated by the market. The contradiction between supply and demand caused by dry weather and excessive market liquidity is considered to be the main reason for the rapid rise in prices of these agricultural products.
Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the national development and Reform Commission, told the media at the end of 5 that there were many long-term factors affecting the price rise of agricultural products, such as reduced planting area, higher labor prices, higher transport costs, higher prices of inputs, such as pesticides, seeds, chemical fertilizers, land rental prices, and unsound transportation system. The layout of the market is not reasonable.
but Peng Sen, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, told the Xinhua news agency that these long-term factors would only lead to a slow rise in the price of agricultural products, rather than a substantial increase in the short term.
he believes that the special reasons for the sharp rise in the price of some agricultural products this year, in addition to the adverse climate conditions, also have a malicious hoarding of social funds, and the factors that seriously disrupt the market order.
"in the case of ample liquidity, speculative capital can easily catch some sudden events and extreme climate hype." Peng Sen said that green beans, garlic and other products are seasonal production, annual consumption, supply, demand are certain, are not particularly large, easy to store, money is easier to hype.
officials of the Ministry of agriculture believe that speculation in small agricultural products will not push up the overall price of agricultural products. At a news conference in May 28th, Ma Shuping, deputy director of the Ministry of agriculture's planting department, further said that the price rise of mung bean and garlic was mainly determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
she provided a set of figures: in 2009, the output of the national mung bean was reduced by more than 130 thousand tons, but the export increased by 130 thousand tons, the import decreased by 70 thousand tons, that is, the domestic market supply decreased by nearly 300 thousand tons; the garlic output in 2008 was 18 million tons. The low price of the year had affected the planting area of 2009, resulting in a decrease of 6 million tons in supply and only 12 million tons last year. . As for the 37, most pharmaceutical analysts say that the severe drought in Southwest China has had an obvious impact on its output.
before, Yao Jingyuan, the chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the price rise of agricultural products is mainly due to climate reasons, and there is no evidence that money is entering the field of agricultural products. But in May 29th, the National Bureau of statistics stated that this statement was purely personal and did not represent the National Bureau of statistics.
professor An Yufa, School of economics and management, China Agricultural University, has conducted field research in the main producing area of garlic - Qixian County, Henan in mid May. He told the reporter that a large portion of the local cold storage was not used for farmers to deposit garlic, but was leased from garlic from Shenzhen and Northeast China. The supply of garlic was less and "the suspicion of the hype was relatively large", and the distributors as the beneficiaries of the price hype were of course unwilling to admit it.
policy effectiveness is to be observed in
for the price changes of small products, the government has made a high-profile move. Hoarding, driving up prices and monopolistic sources of goods are listed as "illegal activities" by the competent authorities, which will be dealt with and severely punished. In May 27th, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and the three ministries and commissions of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce jointly issued a notice that, "cases with serious circumstances, bad nature and great social impact should be publicly exposed, confiscated all illegal income according to law and fined 5 times the illegal income, and a fine of below 1 million yuan is not in violation of the law." Among them, 5 times the fine is the highest amount stipulated in the price law.
officials of the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said some clues to the agricultural and sideline products such as garlic and mung beans were found in the main production provinces and the main marketing provinces. "It will be seriously investigated and exposed after the verification of the relevant evidence."
"this is a signal for malicious speculation, and the government should supervise it." However, the actual operation is still very difficult at present, especially after investigation. " Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that it may be possible to find out if the pursuit of the price of agricultural products is high, but it is difficult to make a thorough understanding of the extent of the speculation, the large scale of funds and the extent of the price hype. "For small scale speculation, cash speculation, even if the regulatory system is very healthy, it may not be able to find out."
"the three ministries are to frighten and frighten the author, and there will be no real action." A professor of University analysis of this reporter, the government has not much motivation to check, worry about the enthusiasm of the farmers, how much, why hoarding, hoarding prices, the law does not seem to be clearly defined.
China's Provisional Regulations on administrative penalties for speculative punishment, which was promulgated in 1987, has listed 11 kinds of behavior as a kind of speculative punishment, such as the monopoly of the source of goods, the lifting of prices, and the reselling of price increases. However, the law was not adapted to social and economic development and was abolished in early 2008.
the electronic market for long-term forward trading of bulk agricultural products is also a key point of this regulation. Three ministries and commissions notified that it was necessary to rectify the long-term forward trading of major agricultural products and prohibit illicit futures trading.
5 28 months, the Qingdao international commodity exchange banned the new order business of garlic varieties. After the transfer of orders in each month, the medium and remote transactions of garlic varieties were stopped. However, the most active trading market in Shandong Shouguang vegetable electronic trading market, after the introduction of the measures, the garlic contract continued to appear two trading boards, October 2010 delivery of garlic prices have risen to 9800 yuan / ton, market expectations have not changed. On the 1 day of
6, a person engaged in bulk trading told the reporter that although the planting area of garlic has increased, we still have a good view of the market.
Wang Yuanhong, a researcher at the economic forecast Department of the National Information Center, suspected that the first electronic transaction, as a means of protecting the interests of farmers, had become a factor of aggravation in the actual operation. There are regulatory issues.
Han Yijun, director of the agricultural trade and Development Policy Research Institute of the agricultural trade promotion center of the Ministry of agriculture, said that the purpose of the use of electronic trading markets in many countries is to stabilize the market, to open the market ahead of time and to determine the intention of buying and selling, but in China, the market organizers can be fair, fair and open, and become a great concern. Since the middle of
5, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce have sent personnel to investigate this. Those who engage in bulk trading told the reporters that they mainly understood the situation and had no conclusion. It is not yet clear whether the electronic trading market should be arranged or not.
in recent years, prices of agricultural products such as pork have been ups and downs. In the long run, how to ensure the smooth supply of agricultural products is one of the subjects that should be studied. Han Yijun believes that China is in a stage of rapid transformation, and the market construction of agricultural products is still in its initial stage. To solve this problem, we must do a good job of basic work such as supply and demand. For example, the form of production organization should speed up the transformation from a single, ultra small peasant household to a new form of new organization, such as farmers' cooperatives and large households. "Making production stable is more important than the change of demand."
An Yufa, a professor at China Agricultural University, said that in the supply and demand of agricultural products, the government should study the change of supply and demand of agricultural products, the law of price, release information in time, refute misleading information, cut off the black hands that affect the law of the market, and strengthen the precaution. "This is precisely the government should do it but not do well".
in the specific means, Ann Yu hair suggests that the government should organize independent and local people who do not have interest relations with the local government. The electronic trading market should report the recent situation to the competent department and judge whether there is any speculation by the experts.
at the moment, it's not enough to rely on these. The rise in inflation expectations caused by rising prices for agricultural products, although Peng Sen believes the rise in the prices of these small varieties will have a certain impact, but the direct impact on the CPI is limited, but he also said that some of the prices of agricultural products will have a "demonstration" effect, which will increase the social inflation expectations.
he believes that the key to strengthening inflation expectation management is to integrate a variety of monetary policy tools, strengthen liquidity management, and maintain a reasonable relationship between economic growth and currency delivery.
although Wang Yuanhong believes that the price of major bulk agricultural products will definitely not rise, he is still worried about becoming a "persistent rise in rotation".
when the real interest rate is negative, funds are too abundant, inflation expectations are strong, and surplus funds will "bubble" to find exports at any time. Green beans, garlic, such small agricultural products are only representative, looking around stamps, commemorative coins, works of art, or high-end villas, commercial real estate, all maintain a strong price trend.
a recent report from the Bank of China's financial markets says there is little possibility that the central bank will raise interest rates continuously this year and further tighten the scale of credit, and speculative bubbles may reappear, which may be brewing in the early 80s of the last century.