China's recent price upward pressure is large
showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in April increased by 2.8% year on year, a 0.4 percentage point increase over last month, and a new year in the year. Experts believe that, as the recent price of food returns to the rise, plus the rise in commodity prices, inflation pressure is further increasing, and short-term price upward pressure can not be ignored.
food prices rose more than expected
"CPI is expected to rise in April, mainly due to higher food prices than expected." Li Xunlei, the chief economist of Guotai Junan, said.
statistics show that food prices rose 5.9% in April and 1.3% in non food prices.
Chen Lu, the manager and chief analyst of the macro research department of Haitong Securities, said the recent rise in the price of the whole country has become an important factor in the promotion of food prices. From the end of 4 to the beginning of May, the price of vegetables in some areas was already higher than the price of pork because of the high price of vegetables throughout the country. In addition to the severe drought in the South and the snow disaster in the north, the price of production, transportation and labor has also made it difficult for vegetable prices to fall back to the previous year.
industry insiders believe that in addition to food prices, the rising price of imported crude oil also pushed up prices, and the price of crude oil rose at a high level, leading to a 1.3% year-on-year increase in non food prices in April.
chief economist Lu Zheng commissar of Societe Generale said that inflation expectations are showing a "dominant" trend. One of the prominent features is that in April, prices had been increased by a change in the first few months of this year to lower the historical average than the historical mean, especially for non food prices.
this year, grain prices have risen by
the Bank of communications Financial Research Center believes that since the 2010 6 and July CPI warping factors are the highest in the year, and the recent food prices are back up, and the purchase price index in PMI in April has risen to 7.5 percentage points, all of which indicate the recent Prices will face greater pressure to rise.
grain prices, grain prices have risen all the way this year. The statistical data released by the NDRC last week showed that the price of grain purchase in the first quarter rose more, and the average purchasing price of rice, wheat and corn in the main producing areas rose by 12.6% year on year, due to the factors such as the reduction of Japonica Rice in the northeast region and the drought in the southwest. From the overseas market, in the case of abundant global liquidity, the possibility of the international speculative capital investment to the relatively weak primary market in the earlier period of the grain and so on is also possible.
industrial products, China logistics and purchasing Federation China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is 55.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month. Among them, the purchase price index exceeds 70%, reaching the highest point since the second half of 2008, indicating that the pressure of production cost will increase significantly. In April, PPI rose 6.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month. The pressure on the transmission of industrial prices to consumer prices is still relatively large.
a variety of ways to manage inflation expectations
it is worth noting that the first quarter 2010 monetary policy implementation report, released by the central bank in 2010, pointed out that the current domestic labor price is rising, the cost of resources is increasing, and the price level may be affected. Overall, the upward pressure on prices is relatively greater, and the potential threat to price stability has increased.
, in order to recover the excess liquidity in the market, the central bank adopted a series of monetary policy tools, such as the third increase in the reserve requirement rate in May 2nd, which made the statutory deposit reserve rate of 17% in large financial institutions; in May 6th, the central bank issued a 110 billion yuan of 3 years, a 20 billion increase from the previous period. Yuan, the winning interest rate fell two basis points.
Li Xunlei believes that, despite the excess price rise in April and the increase in inflationary pressure, whether to raise interest rates depends on the rate of macroeconomic growth in our country and the monetary policy of the mainstream economies in the world. At present, the turmoil in the US and European capital markets can not completely exclude the risk of the "two dip" of the world economy.