The Academy of Social Sciences released the "blue book on real estate". This year, the price drop is unlikely.
China Academy of Social Sciences (24) yesterday (24) held the 2012 China Real Estate Summit Forum and the "Blue Book of real estate". Li Enping, deputy research fellow of the real estate blue book, said this year will be the most difficult year in the real estate industry since the reform of the housing distribution system, and the industry's profit may deteriorate.
Li Enping said that the cost of land development in the real estate development is high, the price reduction effect is spatial, and the sustained market downturn will cause a sharp deterioration in profits. Small and medium-sized housing companies have higher financing costs and smaller profit margins.
Li Enping forecast: under the impact of the international financial crisis and the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, this year, the demand for real estate is likely to be in the downturn, the speculative demand and the demand and retreat are difficult, the consumption demand is cautious, and the supply of real estate will be abundant and the supply will be further accumulated this year. But the new supply may be roughly flat or down from the previous year. This year, the real estate market continues to maintain a consolidation situation, property trading volume will be relatively shrinking, house prices may be slightly down, but the possibility of substantial reduction is very small.
"this year is a very important year for real estate developers, some may resist this year, from the performance of most companies, if it can resist this year, it may be renewed." Li Tiegang, deputy director of Shandong University School of economics, director of real estate research center and commentator of the guide, told the Economic Herald reporter.
he said that as the game period of the real estate market is prolonged, the cost of waiting will gradually decrease in the game of the real estate in a bear market, and the waiting cost of the seller will increase gradually. In this state, a group of small enterprises with small strength and more fragile capital chain will be able to collapse, merge or transfer after a year or two. "This is a normal process of elimination. Some low energy enterprises fail and the backbone enterprises develop healthily, which will make the real estate market orderly purify. It is not possible for a large scale to go bankrupt. "
in Li Tiegang's view, there are still many consumers waiting for money, and the potential demand is still very large. "The national real estate market is now in a wait-and-see situation, including a downward trend, which is expected to keep buyers waiting or wait-and-see.
the falling room for house prices, Li Tiegang said, developers won't get a deal through a sharp reduction. If there are no big changes in the environment, the possibility of a sudden burst of the bubble is smaller, but it will slowly shrink. He believes there is no sign of market change.
Li Tiegang believes that the central government is still "tough" in regulating the property market. This year, the market policy will be "guaranteed pressure", on the one hand, the suppression of investment in speculative demand is the key point of the regulation policy of the property market in the last two years; on the other hand, it supports the need to encourage self housing. Only in this way can real estate enter the track of steady and healthy development.