Author: Liu Wenzhong
[color=#0000ff] policy, market, which hand will dominate the second half of the property market?
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"purchase order" has been implemented for more than half a year and is affected by the dual influence of policy and market hand. In the first half of 2011, the Ji'nan property market showed signs that house prices seemed to have begun to appear under the circumstances of a short period of policy, and the macro regulation and control would still lead the market.
[b] policy is not the hand of the policy of
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since 2011, on the basis of the continuation of the 2010 real estate regulation policy, the state is further strengthening the regulation of the property market. The "eight countries", "Lu eight" and "Ji ten" formally defined the scope and requirements of the purchase policy, and made a precise blow to the demand for speculative investment. The implementation of the pricing regulations of the commodity house made the market more transparent and the developer "start at the ground" to correct the usual violations; the 6 increase The reserve ratio of the financial institutions and the 3 increase in interest rate not only make the difficulty of the financing of the developers increasing, but also directly aggravate the pressure of some buyers who are not rich in funds and postpone the demand for some purchase of the house; the requirements for the construction of the 10 million sets of safeguards in the country and the construction goals of the 23 thousand sets of public rental housing in Ji'nan and the requirements for the construction period are required. It has increased the variable of the future property market.
in July 12th, the standing meeting of the State Council proposed five new "countries" to further consolidate and strengthen the control effect of the real estate market. The most noteworthy of them is that the cities that have already implemented the housing restriction measures should continue to implement the relevant policies strictly, and the two or three line cities that have risen too fast are to be adopted. Necessary purchase measures. Analysts pointed out that the scope of the limit is about to be expanded, indicating that in a longer period of time, the hands of policy regulation will not relax, and the property market will gradually move towards the government's preconceived direction.
[b] second-hand housing market transaction downturn
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in the first half of the second half, limited purchase, limited loan, interest rate and other policies, Ji'nan second-hand housing market is very depressed compared with the previous year, although the second-hand housing listing has been higher, but the volume continues to wander in low position, the price game of both sides of the market is still holding Continue.
6 month second-hand housing data monitoring center data show that in the first 6 months, the supply of second-hand housing in Ji'nan was growing gradually: in January, the number of listed companies was 61012 sets; in February, the effect of limited purchase policy fell more, but the number of listed companies was still 31656 sets; in March, the number of listed companies rose slightly, reached 33925 sets; in April, the number of listed companies increased substantially, in April, It reached 65038 sets; in May, it fell slightly, with the listing volume of 56160 sets; in June, the listing volume increased by 31.57%, and the listing volume reached 73887 sets.
compared with the listing amount, the volume of second-hand housing in the first half was obviously low, and the market showed a serious supply exceeding demand. The statistics of online real estate data of the housing security and Housing Authority showed that the total volume of second-hand housing in the first half of the year was 9463 sets (9173 sets of second-hand housing). In 6 months, only the volume of trading in January had gone through a short period of fiery and 1994 sets of transactions; in February, the volume of trading volume fell 42.53% and fell to the bottom of the limited purchase policy, and the volume of turnover in 3-6 months increased with February, and the volume of monthly turnover was only slightly concussion in more than 1500 sets.
price, the average price of second-hand housing in each month is higher than that at the end of 2010. The data showed that the average price in January was 8692 yuan per square meter, and the ring rose by 1.89% in December 2010, 8745 yuan per square meter in February, 0.61% in the ring, 0.73% in March, 8809 yuan per square meter in March, 1.33% in April 8926 yuan per square meter, 8988 yuan per square meter in May and 0.69% in May, and 0.69% in May, 8895 yuan / sq m under the ring ratio. It fell 1.03%. Compared with previous years, the price of second-hand housing has slowed down in the first half of the year, and prices remained stable.
[b] new housing stock continues to increase
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compared with the downturn in the second-hand housing market, the new commercial housing market seems to be described as "relatively prosperous". The city's urban and rural construction commission "Ji'nan housing and real estate information network" net signed data show that the number of newly built commercial housing (newly built commodity housing) net signed in 1-6 months were 9747 sets of 897152.49 square meters (6519 sets of 790000.88 square meters), 11298 sets of 1107641.27 square meters (8393 sets of 969142.13 square meters), 3017 sets of 208514.33 square meters (1287 suite 141445.7) 3 square meters), 4204 sets of 356166.99 square meters (2160 sets of 235490.56 square meters), 5660 sets of 553725.39 square meters (3362 sets of 364441.99 square meters), 5007 sets of 435145.54 square meters (3315 sets of 380869.32 square meters). From the monthly net volume, the growth rate is obvious compared with the same period in 2011. After the policy has restrained speculative investment houses, developers have taken the initiative to adapt to the situation, and have promoted the high cost performance housing supply for rigid demand, which has won the favor of the market.
however, from the perspective of market supply and demand, the situation of the obvious shortage of the property market in the past turned into supply exceeding demand in 2011. The data showed that the new supply of new commodity houses (newly built residential houses) in 1-6 months was 11386 sets of 891052.85 square meters (5291 sets of 627664.08 square meters), 1877 sets of 117744.1 square meters (972 sets of 96278.37 square meters), 5379 sets of 408319.9 square meters (2814 sets of 313541.18 square meters), and 891052.85 square meters of square meters (square meters). , 6229 sets of 531461.64 square meters (3923 sets of 422417.13 square meters), 7026 sets of 727888.03 square meters (3798 sets of 450827.24 square meters). Take the new commodity housing as an example, deduct the factor of the surprise net before the implementation of the January and February limit purchase policy. Since March, the supply of newly built residential houses has been far greater than the demand in April. The market supply and demand situation has changed from the previous "to the stock" to "backlog", with the supply of the second half of the year. Further increase in inventory pressure will further increase.
[b] new and old house prices appear to be upside down
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it is worth noting that, since the opening of small and medium - and medium - and low - price buildings in the end of April, the low price, low price and high price performance of the house have become the main force of market supply and transaction. In the city, there is a rare phenomenon of old house price upside down.
in the high-tech zone, Rhine Town, Xinyuan International City Garden, Ming Jia Mei Jia, Hisense Hui Yuan, new living home and other residential housing market evaluation price is 8300-8500 yuan per square meter, Hisense Huiyuan recently launched a limited price special room at the lowest price of only 7200 yuan per square meter; Huaiyin District Sunshine 100 international new town second-hand live The price of the house is up to 9600 yuan per square meter, and the lowest price that has been raised in the near future is less than 8000 yuan per square meter. The evaluation price of the second-hand housing in the new town is about 8200 yuan per square meter. The lowest price of the recent special house near the waterfront is only 7500 yuan / sq m, and the lowest price of the home sale of the Greenland International Flower capital is less than 5 900 yuan per square meter, the surrounding second-hand housing transaction price per square meter has reached more than 7000 yuan; the City Middle District Lu Neng show city second-hand housing evaluation price is more than 9100 yuan per square meter, the recent special room is less than 7500 yuan / square meters; Beijing Lu Mountain Villa second-hand housing transaction price has exceeded 8000 yuan / flat square meters, not far away from the international shipping international community launch The price of the flat is less than 7300 yuan per square meter, and the lowest price is 6480 yuan per square meter after the opening of the city's Hengda city. The transaction price of the surrounding second-hand house is more than 7000 yuan per square meter. In the Tianqiao District, the evaluation price of the second-hand residence of the Luneng Kang bridge near San Kong Bridge Street has exceeded 9000 yuan per square meter, and the strength of the road is high. The starting price is less than 8000 yuan per square meter; the evaluation price of the second-hand residence of the Wansheng garden and Qilu garden on the dike road is 8100 to 8400 yuan per square meter, and the starting price of the newly opened Nan Yi spring dawn is only 7680 yuan per square meter.
[b] house prices are facing downside pressure
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news of the scope of the executive meeting of the State Council in July 12th that the scope of the "limit order" will be further expanded, the industry has speculated which cities will be listed in the new limit list, and analyses the possible impact of the expansion of the purchase limit on the market of the limited purchase cities.
Li Tiegang, vice president of the Economic School of Shandong University, director of the center for real estate research, Professor Lv Zhaoyi of the Strategic Research Institute of the Shandong Academy of Sciences, Cheng Daoping, director of the real estate research center of Shandong Normal University, and Li Xiao Peng, the managing deputy general manager of the century, think that Shandong may be included in the new limit list. Cities should be mainly coastal areas such as Yantai, Weifang, sunshine and other cities, and inland Zibo, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Linyi, Jining and other cities, although the first half of the price rises also faster in the first half of the year, but the possibility of limited purchase is not very likely.
to expand the impact of the limit on the Ji'nan property market, experts believe that this will not have a direct impact on Ji'nan in the short term, but if the limited purchase policy as a normal regulation policy persists for a long time, it will have a relatively large impact on the property market. In the early stage of special housing has gradually become a trend on the basis of the three or four quarter may evolve into a more fierce "specials". Lv Zhaoyi even believes that the dual role of policy and market will bring greater downward pressure on housing prices. He expects that the turning point of house prices will come at the latest in the fourth quarter of 2011, and buyers are advised to wait at least half a year for further action.
analysts pointed out that, in the case of apparent upside down of the prices of new and old houses, once the house prices really showed the downward trend, the first impact should be the second-hand housing, and the second may be some major new houses, which are mainly oriented to multiple improvements, as well as a number of reasons, such as the ground section, the matching, the quality and so on. Small and medium sales of poor sales.