How much do you want to pay for the house in 70 years?
in the current national conditions, buying a house for the vast majority of ordinary Chinese people is one of the most important events in life, so any policy or rumors related to housing can attract a large number of eyeballs.
a few days ago, the rumor of "Shanghai's land retracted unpaid" has stirred up a lot of public opinion. Although the Shanghai city planning and land resources administration clarifies that it is misread, it is said that the term of land has not been retracted until the expiration of the term, but the debate is still continuing.
the author tries to discuss from another point of view: how much do you want to spend on a house worth 1 million in 70 years? The answer is that you will not spend more than 50 thousand yuan.
why? Because interest can't go away. This is pure interest, which has nothing to do with the central bank. It has nothing to do with money, but to human nature. We humans have a natural nature, that is, we have a higher evaluation of today's goods and lower evaluation of future goods. This nature is called "intolerance" by Professor Fisher, founder of modern finance. Fei Xue believes that this is the fundamental reason for the interest of human society.
is not difficult to understand. The same red Fuji apple, if you can get it today, you will be willing to spend a dollar, a year to get it, you may only spend 9 cents or less.
the house is the same. The same set of houses in a lot of Beijing, which can bring you a 1 million income stream, would you like to pay for it? If you can get it today, you would probably be willing to spend 1 million; if it was 70 years later, you would be willing to spend more than 30 thousand yuan. Because after calculating the interest rate, 1 million of 70 years later, the value is rather low today.
How can it be? We look at the interest rate of 5%, that is, the discount rate. The value of a house worth 1 million is reduced by a year, which only needs to be delayed for 70 years, and the house that sells for 1 million in 70 years will not seem to be worth more than 50 thousand yuan today.
we can also pour it over. If the annual interest rate is 5%, what is the value of today's 50 thousand yuan and 1 million years after 70? The answer is the former. Because of compound interest, today's 50 thousand yuan can turn into 1 million 520 thousand after 70 years. Today's 50 thousand, and 70 years after 1 million, make a choice between the two. Which one do you want?
with such a view, we don't have to feel that the day is going to collapse. In fact, it's no big deal. Anyway, 70 years later, the small piece of land does not seem to be worth much today.
, of course, 70 years later, the house or land is of little value. It is based on the assumption that the interest rate is about 5%. If someone thinks that his intolerance is low, there is no interest for himself. The house that can be obtained after 70 years, and the house that will be available today is really no difference. Then, 70 years later, the house will also be of great significance to him.
but many people will not be so intolerant. In general, people's intolerance is about 3% - 5%, and the degree of intolerance, the rate of interest, the discount rate, is enough to make it worth 1 million of the house in 70 years.
but, again, since 70 years after the land is of little value to the population, residents don't have to worry too much about whether the government will be retracted after the expiration. Now Shanghai's rumours of "reclaiming land 70 years later" show that the government clearly believes that such a policy will cause public dissatisfaction. Why do you think so?
the answer I guess is that, like most ordinary citizens, they don't really think about this matter before. To calculate, no paper or pen can be used to calculate the property that can be acquired in 70 years.
Zhou Kecheng media practitioner