Do you believe it? Ji'nan house price bubble between 10%-30%
12 8 months, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued the "Housing Green Book: China housing development report (2010-2011)", which was published by the Chinese Academy of social sciences. The report discussed the real problems and major challenges facing China's housing development, analyzed the trend of housing and related markets in China for 2009-2010 years, and predicted the trend of housing development in China for the last 2010-2011 years.
the "Housing Green Book: China housing development report (2010-2011)", issued by the Chinese Academy of social sciences on 8 days, shows that the housing price bubble of large and medium-sized cities in China is too large this year, and the housing bubbles in some cities are too large.
green book has found that the average housing price bubble of ordinary commodity housing is 29.5% through the comparative analysis of the centralized transaction price of ordinary commodity housing in two types of large and medium cities in 35 cities in September 2010, of which 7 urban foam components account for more than 50% of the actual price, and 11 urban foam components are accounted for. The actual price ratio is between 30%-50%, 8 Urban bubbles account for the actual price ratio of 10%-30%, and the 9 urban foam components account for the actual price ratio of less than 10%.
sub cities, the top 7 cities with the highest bubble index are Fuzhou (0.703), Hangzhou (0.669), Nanning (0.668), Qingdao (0.558), Tianjin (0.542), Lanzhou (0.534), Shijiazhuang (0.520). These cities account for over 50% of the bubble price.
Beijing (0.496), Shenzhen (0.485), Wuhan (0.481), Changchun (0.473), Ningbo (0.444), Harbin (0.417), Dalian (0.400), Guiyang (0.369), Shanghai (0.365), Zhengzhou (0.346), Chengdu (0.300).
Nanchang, Ji'nan, Hefei, Xi'an, Guangzhou, Kunming, Xining, Changsha, accounting for more than 10% of the actual price ratio.
Nanjing, Chongqing, Taiyuan, Hohhot, Shenyang, Xiamen, black, Yinchuan, Urumqi, accounting for the actual price ratio within 10% of the actual price.
housing price bubble index represents the proportion of price bubbles in real housing prices. The bigger the bubble index, the bigger the bubble in the city's housing price. The green book points out that the prediction of the housing price bubble index is inevitably disturbed by the accuracy of the data, and the price bubble index is still exaggerated or reduced because the data of some cities, especially the house price data are not completely accurate, can not be further deduced from the housing price bubble to further deduce the trend of the house price.
demand subject "
report points out that from 2009 to 2010, Chinese buyers tend to see, the pressure of renters to bear more and more, renting and buying a dilemma.
green book in the analysis of 2009-2010 years of housing market situation, the housing purchase consumers most think that housing prices are too difficult to pay, hope to control, watching mood gradually stronger.
at the same time, the housing tenant pays the rent surge and the rental pressure is heavy. Since the first half of 2010, the rent level has increased considerably. Part of the intermediary, because of the decline of the housing business, rents the house from the owner of the "two landlord"; the large-scale demolition and the transfer of some buyers into the rental market is also a factor that pushes up the rent; and the high price of housing leads to increased rental costs and the government's lack of rent management should be a more fundamental reason. For many housing consumers, the housing problem has been "unable to afford" and "rent can not afford" dilemma.
> price trend
forecast in 2011, house prices will be stable and low
report forecast in 2011, China's real estate market continues to adjust, real estate prices will be stable.
Ni Pengfei, director of the finance and Trade Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the director of the real estate economy, said that the prediction of
the price of real estate in 2011 fell steadily or slightly. The main reasons are as follows: first, the central housing regulation policy is consistent with the macro-control policy, and the two is the central government in housing regulation and control. On the issue, resolute attitude, strong will, the house prices have taken the outcrop, see the strategy of high, three is expected in 2011, the investment in affordable housing will increase significantly, housing security will be significantly increased; four is housing speculation has been suppressed, housing consumer expectations continue to differentiate.
, in addition, one important reason is that the tightening monetary policy leads to the increase of credit funds in real estate development and the tighter constraints on real estate individual mortgage loans, which will bring great constraints to developers and housing mortgage loans.
Housing Green Book forecast: in the first quarter of 2011, under the comprehensive effect of multiple austerity factors, the development enterprise may reduce the price or reduce the price, the sales area may rise because of the price decline; in the second quarter, the local government regulation measures may be relaxed, the price grid will be relatively stable, the sales area will rise; In the 3 quarter, the contradiction of market supply and demand may reappear, house prices have a certain rise in pressure; the fourth quarter, the regulation policy may be re tightening, house prices and sales are relatively stable.
public rental housing will guarantee the "new main force" report that in 2009-2010 years, China's housing security has increased, public rental housing will become the "new main force" of housing security. "Public rental housing will become a new main force for housing security." Dr. Jiang Xuemei, the finance and Trade Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China not only strengthened the construction of housing security from the aspects of funds, land supply, tax incentives and so on, but also increased supervision.
green book, introduced in June 2010, the Ministry of housing and other seven ministries and commissions jointly issued the "guidance on the acceleration of the development of public rental housing", clear public rental housing will become the main direction of the main force of the housing, the construction of 370 thousand sets of public rental housing this year has reached. While increasing the supply of affordable housing, all localities are constantly exploring and improving the housing security system, trying to establish a housing security system suitable for themselves.