Central bank polls say nearly 4 of households expect housing prices to rise.
newspaper (reporter Su Manli) the central bank announced yesterday's 3 quarter residents' survey results showed that 72.2% of the residents considered the current price level "too high, unacceptable", but expected a sharp rise in house prices, and 36.6% of the people were expected to increase their expectations. It increased by 7.2 percentage points over the previous quarter. The industry believes that this is related to the rise in the supply of the property market.
the report was obtained by the central bank after investigating 20000 depositors in 50 cities across the country. The survey showed that 72.2% of the residents in the 3 quarter thought that the current housing price was "too high, unacceptable", a slight drop of 0.3 percentage points from the last quarter, but still higher than 7 percentage points in the same period last year. However, the proportion of the 36.6% residents increased by 7.2 percentage points higher than the 2 quarter, but still lower than the 4.9 percentage points of the same period last year.
although housing price growth is expected to increase, the purchase intention of urban residents has not increased significantly. In the next 3 months, people who want to buy a house are 15.6%, almost flat from the last quarter, still higher than the lowest level in the second half of 2008, but lower than 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year.
Wan Yumin, general manager of Beijing's real estate Guarantee Corporation, said that the increase in housing prices in the future is expected to be related to the increase in supply in 8 and September. In 8, in September, some of the developers' centralized opening and discount promotion led to some rigid demand, and some of the buildings in Beijing appeared "a rush to the empty, one room difficult to seek". However, most buyers still believe that the effect of the national regulation policy is not yet fully apparent. The two regulation and interest rate rumors also affect the wishes of residents. She expects that in the coming months, the supply and demand sides of the real estate market will remain deadlocked for a while, and the willingness of buyers will not rise sharply until the end of the year. However, some parts of the real estate market are not excluded because of sales promotion.
Zhang Dawei, director of Zhongyuan Real estate research, believes that the turnover of the property market in August is over 50% over the lowest level in June. Some rigid demand began to accelerate into the market. From the actual situation of the recent project, the trend of the price reduction of a few hot items has slowed obviously. Even the two phase of the part of the project has also risen as compared with the first phase of the price, which makes many buyers think that the property market has come back to the bottom.
inflation expected increase investment willingness to increase investment willingness to increase
(reporter Su Manli) 7, August after two months of CPI breakthrough 3%, the central bank reported that the 3 quarter, 46.2% of the population is expected to rise in the next quarter, but 63.9% bankers think central bank goods The currency policy will maintain the status quo.
survey results show that in the 3 quarter, 58.3% of residents thought that prices were "high and unacceptable", down 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. Residents' expectations for inflation remain strong, predicting a 46.2% rise in prices in the next quarter, up 3.8 percentage points over the 2 quarter. At the same time, residents' willingness to invest has increased, and 38.8% of residents tend to invest more, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than that in the previous quarter. The choice of "more savings" and "more consumption" decreased by 1.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points over the previous quarter.
when inflation expectations continue to rise, the sound of raising interest rates is also heard. But the central bank's survey of bankers showed that the 3 quarter bankers' monetary policy perception index, the "moderate" monetary policy of bankers, was 69.4%, a significant 11.5 percentage point higher than the previous quarter. For the next quarter's monetary policy, 63.9% of bankers believe that they will maintain the status quo, an increase of 12.4 percentage points over the previous quarter.
Li Mingliang, a macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that the downward trend of China's economy will not change, and the bottom will appear in the first half of 2011. At the same time, the fall in aggregate demand weakens the pressure of current price rise to a certain extent. It is expected that the CPI will gradually decline after reaching the peak in the 3 quarter of this year. The peripheral economic interest rates are generally low, and the domestic and foreign spreads are relatively high. China's economic fundamentals do not support raising interest rates temporarily.
bankers' confidence index set a 4 year high
newspaper (reporter Su Manli) the central bank's survey of bankers showed that the 3 quarter, the bankers' confidence index was 73.1%, a significant increase of 9.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, a new high since the 2 quarter of 2006.
, however, bankers and entrepreneurs have dropped to the macroeconomic level of the next quarter. Among them, the banker's macroeconomic forecast index is 50.6%, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, the first time since 2009.
the results of the central bank's survey of 5000 entrepreneurs also showed that the macroeconomic heat index and the macroeconomic heat expectation index ended in five consecutive quarters, slightly down 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, respectively, 46.9% and 47.3%, respectively.