whether it is the media yelling out of the media, or when Yu Liang, the president of Vanke, received an interview with the sister of the island, he proposed to make use of the precious time after stepping on the brake and establish a long-term mechanism.
what is the real estate market without long-term mechanism? Please see -
data source: the National Bureau of Statistics (2016 11 months before the growth of real estate supply growth data short)
obviously, the growth of the national real estate supply growth has a strong correlation with the growth of development investment. Sex. When the government has a lot of land, the growth rate is fast.
for example, in 2013, real estate land use increased by 26.8% year on year, by 2015, the growth rate fell to -20.9%; the supply gap was 80 thousand hectares, and the growth rate was nearly 47 percentage points! Without suspense, the growth rate of investment in the two years is 19.8% and 1% respectively.
in the real estate market, the absolute strong position of the government and the rather casual style of supply make the investment pace and expectation of the market uncertain.
people in it can understand why the long-term mechanism is so important. Yu Liang sighed, from the real estate industry, today, "shark fin fish food", tomorrow "drink the west north wind" is not a good thing, binge drinking, soaring and falling to all people are hurt, healthy and stable development is the best. The long term mechanism of
brings stability expectation, and anticipation of stability is the life of prosperity and development of the market and industry. However, in the absence of a long-term mechanism of reality, the economic downturn, the government wants to pull the economy by real estate, when the economy overheating, and through the control of demand from time to time to the brakes, and the industry is diffusing random control. Such a headache, foot pain management and control, and the wayward way of land supply, will only lead to the development of the industry as a roller coaster, speculating, irrational behavior frequently, but the addiction to death, no one to consider tomorrow.
unfortunately, this roller coaster is not only a heartbeat for a few people, but also a healthy and stable industry and economic society.
a recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau has proposed to speed up the research and establishment of a long-term and healthy development mechanism for real estate development. "Speeding up research and establishment" is meaningful, and it is also enough to see the blank before and the difficulty of the future.
after all, the real estate industry has been a whole body and a long-term mechanism, not only to improve the long criticized land supply system, but also a complete set of supporting mechanisms, such as housing system, housing finance system, real estate tax system, real estate market regulation and so on.
now, in the context of the Fed's increase in interest rates, the bubble in China's property market faces a more vulnerable risk. How to ensure that a series of crises that are dormant are not detonated by the chain? Before the fire is extinguished, the long-term mechanism can not wait for seconds.
text / Huo Mu Tong
source: swordsman Island