Beijing time this morning, the Federal Reserve announced the level of the federal fund rate target range up to 25 basis points to 0.5% to 0.75% levels After a year, the rate of interest rate increases again. The boots landed with a chill.
the interest rate increases, the pressure of domestic capital outflow will increase, and the attraction of RMB assets will also decline. Will the property market be hit?
new worries, the old accounts seem to be a little "comforting" - according to the National Bureau of statistics, 1 to November this year, sales of commercial housing amounted to $102503 billion, higher than in South Korea, Australia, Russia and other countries of GDP last year. China's real estate industry seems to be a rich one.
the real estate sales is high, but through overdrafts the majority of the people in the future decades of income to achieve, or slightly empty, and the GDP is the current real market value, the two are not comparable. However, with this figure, we might as well reexamine the Chinese property market, which is intertwined with love and hate. What? Do you have only hate? That's more to look down.
inventory
data source: the National Bureau of statistics
over the past 6 years, sales of commercial housing nearly doubled, especially in November this year, up 37.5%, more than 10 trillion, to create a new high. Despite the overheating of the momentum, a few cold water had been poured down, but there was an unexpected but unexpected consolation in the fait accompli.
with the surging sales volume, the revenue of the right to use state-owned land in the former November was 3 trillion and 100 billion yuan, up 19.1% over the same period last year.
according to statistics, only in the first half of October this year, the sum of land sales income and the five main taxes related to the housing estate had reached nearly 5 trillion and 700 billion yuan. What is this concept? In the ten years from 1999 to 2008, the national land transfer income totaled 5 trillion and 300 billion yuan - ten months to ten years!
and in the first three quarters, the contribution of the real estate market to the economic growth was about 8%.
seems to be a good news, happy, on the other side of the same high stock - the sale area of the area has doubled over the 6 years.
recall that economists had calculated last year that "the current inventory is selling well according to the sales speed last year, and it will be sold for eight years before it can be sold out." To this time this year, in the tight limit of the loan limit policy, I am afraid that it has not been sold at the rate of last year's sales, eight years is not enough time? At the end of
2015, the central economic work conference put forward the task of real estate inventory, expanding effective demand and opening up supply and demand channels. At that time, the area of real estate for sale has reached 718 million 530 thousand square meters high,
and the previous November data show that the area is still up to 690 million 950 thousand square meters. At present, the 27 million 580 thousand square meters of inventory is removed, accounting for about 4% of the remaining stock. At this speed, will it take 25 years to go?
such a huge stock, I'm afraid there will be a more difficult trip in the context of the Fed's increase today.
the Fed raised interest rates, the US dollar strengthened, the yuan would further depress, and some even predicted that it would break 7 next year. Hot money in China's property market may soon return to the US. If China will increase interest rates next year after the us raise interest rates, the money will be more tense in the market, the cost of capital will rise sharply, and the high stock and capital chain of real estate enterprises will be worse.
in order to speed up the withdrawal of funds, the sale of real estate will become the choice that some real estate developers have to make. With the spread of housing prices, with the psychological spread of "buying up or not buying down", both real estate enterprises and housing prices may have some adjustment.
although some experts pointed out that because of our country's long term of capital account more stringent control, capital outflow channels are not smooth, the history of the Fed's interest rate increases in China's real estate market has no impact. However, the siphon effect in the US market is obvious. Data from past outflows of China's property market have shown that channels are not smooth and do not mean channels are blocked.
to stock at the beginning of the year, at the end of the year is limited to buy, originally said good, how does the painting change? Can
be the same? The government let everyone go to three or four lines to buy unsalable houses, and we all want to go to a second line to stir up the golden day, and together, the housing prices of the hot cities will be higher and higher. Who is the blame? We can not blame the ordinary people, making money is not easy, as a normal person, a little idle money to invest, will generally make such a rational decision.
, however, the central request to the three or four line of the city's stock, some hot cities are not also riding on the easy bus, the opportunity to compress the original land supply, artificially high land prices, for land finance to add firewood? In view of the existing data, I am afraid it is not an empty hole. Since this year, the proportion of local financial revenue depends on about 40% of the land real estate market, nearly half of the "half of the river".