in the past year, there are always such myths around me.
the three rooms in central and inner ring were purchased at the beginning of the year. When the normal formalities were officially transferred, the number of 100-200 rooms was up to a few. I was not so lucky to buy a ticket in the end of the crazy year. I bought a set of big third rooms in the middle ring at a little lower than the market price. As soon as the Spring Festival passed, the owner of the house waiting for sale was in succession to raise the price, and my house appeared the.Quot of millions of people you saw, that is,.Quot;
as a city ordinary middle class, I am in such a market, from unaware, to watch, to be indignant, anxious, and then decision, basically represents the past year of the city's replacement customers in the whole course of the heart. But even now, we can not say whether we should be lucky or impulsive.
after the decision to replace a school district of the main city area, I need to sell the existing outer ring outside the suburbs of the two rooms, one is according to Shanghai's limited purchase policy, the non local household registered married couples can only have one set of housing; two I need this set of housing money to go Charge first payment, I am the legendary replacement.
in the Shanghai market, which created 767 billion 800 million yuan of second-hand housing turnover in 2015, there are a lot of displacement customers like me. Although in the eyes of some homeowners, holding only a million cash, and preparing to sell and buy the suburban replacement buyers in the suburbs, is their most unwelcome.Quot; the next home.Quot; there is no bargaining power.
I set the target for my own capacity within 7 million of the new house, the unit price is about 50 thousand. Such a budget can be found in the core area of Shanghai if it was in early 2015. But by November, house prices in central Shanghai were.Quot; 330.quot; the new deal climbed month by month. I was squeezed out of the inner ring and started looking for goals in the middle of the ring.
data from a number of institutions showed that the average price increase of one hand home in Shanghai was nearly 18% in 2015, and the average price of second-hand housing was up 21.5%, but from the center of the city, the data was obviously.Quot; the average.Quot;
until the end of November, the market was beyond what I had learned. In the area I aim at, there are 600-700 million times in November. In December, under 7 million, it is hard to find, and then to January before the Spring Festival, it is basically over 7 million 500 thousand.
these are listed prices, I was naive to think that 7 million of the sale of about 500 thousand price space, then I know that the city has become.Quot; the seller's market.Quot; sincere sale of the bargaining space is not not, about 100 thousand, not eager to sell the price is a conscience.
in every weekend in the rush to see the house, from the enthusiasm to the anxiety, from the consideration of the week to the bargaining, my life is an uppercase anxiety. During the period of
, I had three times to prepare the idea of negotiating price. The first homeowner is an old couple in Shanghai, whose children have moved abroad to prepare for the sale of their homes. He had increased 300 thousand last month, but the bargaining space for me was only 50 thousand. Later, it closed and sold, ready to rise again after the year.
second time is a port owner, she is ready to sell home to the United States, the price is slightly lower than the surrounding market price, but the condition is 730 million full payment within a month, give up.
third times completely refreshed my understanding. After seeing the house, the owner of the intermediary will be finalized next weekend. The owner said that the price is now up to 500 thousand, and there are still several people waiting in line. Another week later, the system showed that the price of the house increased by 1 million.
friends comforted, now this Monday price, you are the replacement, the whole cycle for half a year, perhaps hasn't passed the household, has risen millions, and everyone is not willing to hold cash, for you you sell?
such a market, no one's mentality is good.
why prices rose in 2015, and the rise above the owners, more than the developers, more than anyone who thinks that the industry is expected to know.
which, after the policy loosening effect is one aspect, on the other hand, after the demand has been stimulated, the market atmosphere caused most of the demand and ability of the people eager to buy tickets on the ship, there are some intermediary factors. But generally speaking, most of them are real demand, which is different from that of 2009.
that is to say, the real estate market in Shanghai in 2015 overdrew many demands ahead of schedule.
last October, Shanghai executives also shouted at housing prices. It is said that housing prices in Shanghai have been very high. If we do not insist on regulation and control, we will weaken the competitiveness of cities.
in January of this year, the relevant departments of Shanghai also held an internal seminar, and gave a set tone to guard against the rapid rise in housing prices.
but then a succession of.Quot; Di Wang.Quot; and refreshed everyone's understanding.
is often a piece of land just shot, the surrounding second-hand housing has heard the wind up prices. People have assumed that the developer will not lose money, then the flour has already been expensive over the bread, and the price of the land should be sold by the land, and the price of 50 thousand can be sold, and the development and profit of a number of years are added, but the surrounding second-hand housing is 30 thousand.
, so in the turn of the earth King's debut, some horror titles also appear like this: the break even price is 50 thousand! Somewhere into the era of mansion! The price is 50 thousand! One area completely eliminate 40 thousand unit price! In
2015, the operating land area of Shanghai fell by 43% year on year. It was the lowest point in the last 5 years, but the transaction amount has fallen little, and the rise of land price can be imagined. In particular, the hot homestead market, the high premium of the frequency of the king, has also become one of the main reasons for pushing up housing prices.
in fact, such a market is also a dilemma for developers. For most housing companies, the cheap land saved many years ago has been running out of money. Today, the land premium in the open market exceeds 40%, making it almost impossible to achieve high profits.
the differentiation of the property market, resulting in three or four line cities dare not take place, a second tier cities dare not take. The land price and the cost of Jianan have risen sharply, with the market fluctuation, the change of the exchange rate leads to the increase of the financial cost. As long as the market fluctuates slightly, the future of the housing enterprises may face a small profit or even no money.
, therefore, you will find that in the past year there have been many consortium in the first tier cities. Almost every developer who takes the land is going to make a luxury house. Only by constantly adding items to the project and increasing the added value can the price be increased. Finally, the result will inevitably lead to luxury housing.
for developers, this is also a strategically correct and tactically inefficient market.
siphon effect
in the first tier cities, if you ask the young people in this city, 5 million, buy a house or start a business? I don't know what to answer.
around me, it's almost two generations to buy a house, and then add leverage. Those parents who take the small town's income to spend enough money to pay their children's down payment in big cities, take out their life savings and sell their property at any cost.
this is why the three or four tier city inventory is too high to be imagined, that is,.Quot; siphon effect.Quot; the simplest and crude explanation.
what kind of city is eligible for.Quot; siphon.Quot;? There are the best universities here, and the best graduates can find satisfactory jobs locally. Looking at the whole country, how many cities have met this demand?
the real estate of a big city means better education for grandchildren and better jobs for children, which means that the glory of their savings means that one generation is stronger than the generation, and that the three generation will be able to turn over.
, and all this, from the expansion of university enrollment, we can not go back to this land of magic.
house prices subvert people's cognition of wealth and life and let people go forward.