Cass: after the two quarter of next year, prices or cliff declines will fall.
published by the China Academy of Social Sciences finance and Economics Research Institute of China's Housing Development Report (2015-2016) released today, the report predicts that after a relatively rapid rise in house prices, there was a wave of cliff fall after the second quarter of 2016. The
report points out that the housing situation from 2014 to 2015 exceeded expectations. The year-on-year growth of commodity housing sales experienced V shape changes: the sales area was the largest decline in February 2015, in June, the negative change was positive, from 1 to October, the increase was 7.9%; the commodity housing price slowed down from the decline to the obvious rise: October 2014 decline decreased, 2015 March was negative to positive, obviously rising. In addition, the supply of commodity housing has slowed down, and the growth of the stock has declined. Enterprises have been suspended, bankrupt, transformation and upgrading, merger and reorganization, and the growth of real estate investment is falling down in a subduction type, and the direct contribution to economic growth is almost zero.
report: in 2016, the housing market was unstable, fluctuating risk was great, and the trend of differentiation was serious. In the case of no major changes in the overall economic trend and no major measures, in view of the 2015 commodity housing sales close to the peak in 2013, the improvement of sexual demand is greatly released, the growth of commodity housing sales is weak and the inventory pressure is limited. According to the Chinese housing index, the housing price is rising rapidly, 201 After the 6 quarter of the second quarter, there was a possibility of a cliff fall, but commercial housing investment is expected to slow up, and the growth of the economy is expected to increase.
report suggested that the regulation of the real estate market from 2016 to 2017 should be locked in three major objectives: to go to stock, to achieve a substantial increase in sales; to prevent risk, to keep house prices at a reasonable level, to prevent large ups and downs, to prevent default risks, and to promote investment to a normal level.