The new deal in the property market will be first paid or reduced
for several days in the center of the emphasis on the inventory, the property market is also expected to welcome good. The Shanghai and Shenzhen index fell more than 1% on the 18 day, while the real estate sector rose 1.63% against the trend.
real estate sector led
18 days early, the real estate sector broke out, although the afternoon after the downward downward trend, but at the close, the real estate sector increased by 1.63%. In the stock market, the three shares of Zhongtian city investment, Zhongjiang real estate, China China real estate, sunshine city 9.52%, royal court international rise 7.04%, Rong an real estate rose 6.67%, Poly Real estate rose 6.26%.
message surface, first in the eleventh meeting of the central financial leadership group, the general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping, proposed to digest real estate inventory, promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate, for the first time to the real estate inventory. Then, at the executive meeting of the State Council on the following day, Premier Li Keqiang also stressed the need to speed up the reform of household registration system to drive consumption of housing and household appliances.
the central government's emphasis on stock removal has released a strong policy signal in the current situation of high stock market stock and continued decline in investment. Expert analysis, a new round of real estate rescue measures will be introduced, the policy will focus on high inventory of three or four line cities, including increasing housing demand, further reducing the threshold of house purchase and reducing the difficulty of housing financing.
Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of the Central Plains real estate, told the first financial daily, that the policy orientation of encouraging housing consumption this year is not only considered from the macroeconomic perspective, but also because the property market is facing a painful inventory stage, which is not only related to the start demand, but also to the solution of the risk. To this end, on the one hand, the central government, on the one hand, from the financial and tax, credit, provident fund and other related policies to encourage the improvement of sexual demand into the market, on the other hand, through the housing security monetization to accelerate the digestion of commodity housing stock.
why is inventory so important at present? On the one hand, it is due to the high inventory pressure at present. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of 10, the area of commercial housing for sale was 686 million 320 thousand square meters, an increase of 21 million 220 thousand square meters over the end of 9. Over the past two years, the area for sale has increased by 239 million 960 thousand square meters, up 54%.
of course, stock pressure comes mainly from the three or four line cities. Zhang Dawei said that the issue of inventory is a split problem. At present, under the stimulus of a series of policies since September 30, 2014, the stock pressure has eased obviously in the first and second line market. At present, the main pressure is the three or four line city. Data show that, 1~10 months, non key cities commercial housing sales area increased by 0.4 percentage points lower than 1~9 months, pulling the national sales as a whole downward.
in real estate development investment, 1~10 month, the national real estate development investment of 78801 billion yuan, the nominal increase of 2%, the growth rate fell 0.6 percentage points than the month of 1~9, a new low since 21 months. In the month of October, the investment in real estate development fell by 2.4%. Since the investment in real estate development has always accounted for about 20% of the investment in fixed assets, and the investment in the upper and lower reaches of the iron and steel industry, such as the steel and cement industry, the decline of real estate investment will undoubtedly affect the growth of fixed assets investment to a great extent.
Yan Yuejin thought, although the stock market effect began to appear in the market this year, it was mainly a hard landing of the policy sustained Panasonic. It may be enhanced.
three or four lines to inventory
Zhang Dawei said, in order to do everything possible to achieve the goal of inventory, in addition to the market demand side in addition to the policy, the regulation of the supply side of the land market also become a major key to the property market policy. However, the focus of this round of inventory is obviously not in the real estate market and the second line of the core city, but in the vast number of three or four line cities and part of the cold second line cities.
professor Li Youhua, a member of the Xiamen Municipal Political Consultative Conference and director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Jimei University, said that after ten years of rapid growth in the real estate industry, the real estate industry has now transferred from the former seller's market to the buyer's market. In this process, most of the three or four line cities are not developed by the industry and the public resources are matched. Lack of attractiveness to the surrounding population is very limited. Coupled with the fact that the land supply in the past few years is relatively large, the three or four tier cities are still facing considerable inventory pressure.
therefore, in order to effectively digest the inventory of the three or four tier cities, we must enhance their attractiveness to the surrounding population. Generally speaking, the foreign population of the three or four line city is mainly from the city and county under the jurisdiction of the city. If the city and county population below can not attract the population, then the three or four line cities will not be able to increase the housing demand. However, the problem is that the population of the rural areas is mostly developed directly to the second line city, and the population of many three or four line cities is still moving to the second line city, and the development of the three or four line cities has been relatively slow.
how to enhance the attractiveness of the three or four line city? It is an important aspect to accelerate the household registration reform. In the future, under the general policy of people-oriented urbanization, the policy of house purchase will be deductive and deepened in more cities.
however, if there is no good employment opportunities, good education and medical public resources, even if there are three or four lines of urban household registration, the surrounding farmers can not produce enough attraction. Therefore, how to speed up the development of the three or four tier city industry and the layout of public resources in the future is also crucial. For example, Hebei province put forward that we should take advantage of the national strategy of coordinated development between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as an opportunity to promote the development of the real estate market in the surrounding areas of Beijing, in order to build the satellite city suitable for the world-class urban agglomeration, strengthen the guiding role of the planning, and not build the "sleeping city" and "the city".
on the other hand, the State Council decided to further strengthen the urban shantytown reform and put forward the three year action plan in the context of the low growth rate of real estate development investment. That is to say, in 2015 three years, ~2017 will transform 18 million shanty towns including urban dilapidated houses and urban villages, and 10 million 600 thousand rural dilapidated houses. In this respect, it is also an important way to solve the stock of commercial housing, such as the monetary subsidy of the affordable housing, the purchase of the stock of commodity housing as the guarantee of the housing.
for example, Zhengzhou municipal government announced that, if the related families voluntarily give up the qualification of housing purchase, and transfer to purchase ordinary commodity housing, the subsidy will be given to 800 yuan per square meter for the purchase of the house within 90 square meters.
besides, it is still necessary to continue easing credit policy. Zhang Dawei said that from the end of 2014 in the end of 11 monthly interest rate reduction channel, 6 interest rate reduction in accordance with the benchmark interest rate calculation, the interest reduction rate of 225 thousand and 700 in 20 years. Before the purchase of non restricted city down payment to 25%, the future is still expected to continue to adjust to reduce.