In June, Ji'nan residential transactions fell more than 20%, prices were somewhat loose.
Ji'nan Construction Commission transparent sales network related data show that in June, the new housing sales in Ji'nan city (last month) fell. Industry analysts believe that, under the influence of the regulation policy and the atmosphere of the market, the third quarter property market may have a large "discount wind", from the current "local preferential" to "comprehensive preferential", house prices may be loose.
data from the transparent housing network of the municipal construction commission showed that in June, the total volume of housing in the city was 1274 units, down 24.12% from 1679 sets in May. Since the month of
6, the reporter has seen the scene of disappearance of people in many flats, and the sales staff revealed that only one or two groups of clients were received. Some newly opened developments are slightly better, but they are also "asking more and buying less". Compared with the sales offices, the purchase intention of buyers is reduced. Reporters in the western part of a real estate sales office to see the arrival of Mr. Chen, "just to see, waiting for the price discount, developers this time is certainly unable to sustain." Mr. Chen said he has been paying attention to the real estate for a long time and missed the best time to buy a house. Then the building has been rising, and now he wants to wait and see, "to buy again".
our city real estate analyst Li Zhen believes that in June, a number of newly opened buildings in the urban area were released below the expected price, plus the number of alternative housing types increased to a certain extent. Popular, individual property even appeared "zero turnover".
reporter learned that in June, special room, discount room, preferential room frequently appeared in the Ji'nan property market, some real estate discount, discount strength is still very big. "This week, we raised 15% off of the chips, until the end of this week." The sales staff of the Hengda oasis told reporters. "Now we can enjoy 2% off preferential loans, in addition to this, teachers and other industry buyers can also give five hundred or six hundred yuan per square meter of the discount, equivalent to 5% off." A salesman in a building in eastern Ji'nan said.
many insiders said in an interview that the current property market policy risks still exist, the possible implementation of the regulatory policy in the third quarter of the third quarter, and the upcoming market new deal, will have a further impact on the psychological expectations of all parties, although most of the current prices are at the sale price. The grid remained "strong", and even individual property prices rose slightly, but the market was generally relatively low. As the volume continues to slump, it is expected that the third quarter, the market will appear a large "discount wind", the market will be "partial preferential" to "comprehensive preferential", house prices may be loose.
extension reading: "house price regulation and control should pay attention to capital control"
the citizens of a business unit in Ji'nan city. In the last two years, the real estate of the city has been run almost all over the city. At the end of 2008 to the first half of 2009, the stagflation of house prices and even the price promotion of individual buildings had given him unlimited hope, but after the two quarter of 2009, the retaliatory rebounding of house prices had made him depressed.
Xiao Jia told reporters that at the beginning of last year, a real estate in the middle part of our city met the price of 6500 yuan per square metre at that time. Because the price of housing in the whole country slowed down, and little Jia Xiangzhong's block had not opened, he chose to wait and see. Unexpectedly, at the end of last year, when Xiao Jia called the sales girl again, the other side told him that the average price of the flat he wanted to buy was 8500 yuan per square metre. "Now, the average price of this building has nearly 9000 yuan," Xiao Jia's tone is very helpless.
since this year, the "ten countries" and other property market control policies have been introduced successively, and let Xiao Jia have a little hope. According to the statistics, after entering July, the daily turnover of the market in our city has declined continuously. Many buyers have been guessing that the prices of house prices have been likely to come down. Therefore, we should stabilize the supply and demand of the capital level of the real estate, and guide the capital from the hot city housing to the developing second tier cities, and support the urbanization process and the emerging economic zone.
GDP, urbanization and the real estate market three partners together, must be the long-term driving force for the development of the real estate industry in the future.
Nie Meisheng, President of the National Chamber of Commerce and Industry Chamber of Commerce, joined the forum recently, said that capital has entered the real estate market, and the market competition will inevitably push the price of the house to a large increase. The rise of housing prices is the imaging of excessive liquidity. The root of the problem must be solved from the perspective of capital.
she believes that the factors affecting housing prices are divided into three categories: long term, medium term and short term. Long term factors generally affect 5 to 10 years, including economic growth, GDP growth and growth rate of urbanization. Medium and short term factors usually affect 1 to 3 years, including regulation policy, monetary policy, land policy and so on. The current factors affecting house prices generally affect a year or so, mainly monetary policy adjustment, liquidity control, prevention of overheating of real estate, overheating of the economy, high price risk caused by high leverage, turbulence factors in the process of world economic recovery, inflation expectations, RMB appreciation and so on.
the analysis of the long-term factors affecting house prices from the orientation of urbanization. According to the survey data of the National Bureau of statistics, the 25-45 year old group is the main body of the house purchase. The urbanization rate of our country rises by about 1 percentage points each year, and the urban population increases by 14 million. The population age structure and urbanization are the long-term factors that support the growth of housing demand in China, but in the short term it is not the main reason for the acceleration of housing prices. In addition, urbanization is the main driving force for stimulating domestic demand. Statistics show that each increase of 1 people in China's cities and towns can drive 100 thousand yuan domestic demand, and each increase of 1% urban population in the United States, Pull 25% consumption.
GDP and urbanization synchronization and rapid interaction are the driving force for the long-term development of real estate in the future. Most of the western developed countries completed the process of urbanization before World War II. After the Second World War, the process of industrialization was completed in 30 years, that is, the per capita GDP increased from $3000 to $15000. Unlike the developed countries, China's economic growth and urbanization are synchronized rapidly. In 2009, the "iron, public and machine" infrastructure investment was vigorously promoted to stimulate the economy, which further stimulated the GDP and urbanization. The result also boosted the real estate market, and the three partners must be the long-term development of the future. Driving force.
real estate regulation has changed from a normal state to a normal state. The adequacy of real estate development funds has begun to decline, but developers are still not bad at all.
in recent years, China's real estate regulation policy has been frequent, professional people believe that the 10 year 5 regulation and control policy orientation will play a leading role in the real estate market, China's real estate regulation has changed from very normal to normal. In 2009, China's land price growth rate continued to rise, "land king" scrambled and "flour is more expensive than bread" phenomenon reappears. 84 cities in the country have secured 25856 billion yuan of land mortgage loans, an increase of 42.8% over the previous year. The rapid promotion of land value directly promotes the rise of housing prices.
from the current factors, after a few months of regulation, the data of May this year showed that real estate investment continued to grow, the investment in real estate development in the country increased by 19.4% compared with last month; the new housing area was around 17.9%, the completed area of the house was increased by 7.1%, and the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises around the country was around. Growth was 24.6%, and land purchase cost increased by 43.7%. From the investment direction, investment inertia has shifted to non hot cities, and many development enterprises have bought land at bargain prices.
from the capital level, the ratio of real estate investment and real estate capital in 1-3 month is 1:2.46, the ratio of April is 1:1.6, the ratio of May is 1:1.54, and the average in 2009 is 1:1.58. This shows that the adequacy of real estate development funds has begun to decline, but developers are still not bad money.
future policy will continue to strictly control the leverage ratio and reduce credit risk.
in June of this year, the CBRC released data that the proportion of real estate loans has reached 20%, and a few joint-stock banks have exceeded 30%. Other loans such as real estate mortgages have reached half of the total credit. To this end, the CBRC emphasizes that the management of land reserve loans will be strengthened, and the loan risks of real estate development are strictly controlled. In addition, the private housing loan policy of dynamic and differential management is carried out, and all kinds of real estate and speculative housing are strictly limited, and the large and medium-sized banks will continue to test the pressure of real estate loans on a quarterly basis.
also makes the real estate market face uncertain factors. Our analysts pointed out that because of the depreciation of the euro, the RMB has appreciated by 18%, and the appreciation of the renminbi will be beneficial to imports, but it is not good for exports. External inflation and internal inflation, once inflationary pressure is bound to tighten the money, inflation expectations will continue to rise in real estate prices. The economy has formed a sandwich effect under the pressure of appreciation and inflation, and the transfer of funds to the sandwich layer of virtual bubbles has prompted asset prices to continue to rise. Therefore, analysts believe that this year's financial policy will adjust the inflation, asset bubbles, RMB appreciation and steady growth.
when talking about how to better stabilize the real estate market, the real estate research scholar of our city pointed out that while unswervingly carrying out the market reform of the real estate industry, we should improve the housing security system and take care of the low-income families.